Can the United Democratic Front (UDF) score a hat trick of victories or will the Left Democratic Front (LDF) pull off a surprise?
The Mavelikara (SC reserved) Lok Sabha constituency cannot be considered a bastion of anyone, but historically it has shown inclination towards the UDF and Congress party. After the constituency came into being in 1962, it has elected Congress candidates or the party supported candidates 10 times in 14 elections.
It underwent major delimitation process twice, last time in 2008. The present Lok Sabha segment is spread over three districts of Alappuzha, Kollam and Kottayam covering seven Assembly constituencies between Kuttanad and Pathanapuram.
In a bid to retain the seat, the Congress has fielded incumbent Kodikunnil Suresh, MP, who is looking to make it three victories in a row. The LDF, on the other hand hopes to upset the UDF applecart, has given ticket to Chittayam Gopakumar of the Communist Party of India (CPI), sitting MLA representing Adoor Assembly constituency.
Making it a triangular contest is the candidature of Thazhava Sahadevan, fielded by the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS), an ally of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). In 2009 and 2014, Mr. Suresh defeated his nearest rival R.S. Anil and Chengara Surendran of the CPI by a margin of 48,048 and 32,737 votes respectively.
Deciding factors
The development agenda is the dominant poll narrative in the constituency, albeit the Sabarimala issue and last year’s devastating floods are also talking points.
However, with various Christian organisations, Nair Service Society (NSS) and Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam holding sway over the constituency, the caste and religious equations will be the deciding factor.
The Scheduled Caste community is a sizeable vote share at least in one Assembly constituency in the Lok Sabha segment. The Kerala Congress (B), which switched sides to LDF from UDF, will be a factor at least in a couple of places.
While, the UDF is seeking votes for the continuation of the development activities, the LDF is alleging a lack of progress in the last 10 years. The LDF also derives strength from occasional surprises the constituency sprang up. In 2004, when C.S. Sujatha of the CPI(M) defeated Congress candidate Ramesh Chennithala by a margin of 7,414 votes. The other three times, the constituency elected a candidate other than the Congress/supported candidates were in 1967, 1980 and 1984.
In 2016 Assembly elections, six out of the seven Assembly constituencies sided with the LDF. The UDF could bag only Changanassery.