Choice now appears to be between no deal and lengthy extension as MPs reject Withdrawal Agreement for the third time
MPs have rejected Prime Minister Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement for the third time this afternoon, leaving a lengthy extension to Article 50 or a 'no-deal' departure as the two most likely outcomes for the UK's tortuous Brexit negotiations.
In yet another tumultuous day in the House of Commons MPs rejected May's deal by a majority of 58, a narrower majority than the previous two losses but still a sufficiently large defeat to all but end hopes of the agreement being approved before the UK's current exit deadline of April 12.
"The implications of the house's decision are grave," May told the Commons. "I fear we are reaching the limits of this process in this House."
"This government will continue to press the case for the orderly Brexit that the result of the referendum demands," she added.
The government had hoped to secure significant support for the deal today, after May promised to resign if it passed and Number 10 separated the Withdrawal Agreement from the forward-looking Political Declaration.
The gambit won over a number of leadership hopefuls and leading lights in the European Research Group (ERG) who had previously slammed May's deal, such as Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Dominic Raab.
However, green economy commentators noted that the prospect of May resigning within weeks coupled with the ditching of the Political Declaration raised the prospect of a new Prime Minister rowing back on a number of key government pledges.
For example, May's successor could renege on pledges to maintain environmental standards and workers rights, and pursue a looser trade deal with the EU that would require Northern Ireland to become subject to the Withdrawal Agreement's backstop arrangements.
As such, the DUP and the bulk of those Labour MPs who had considered backing May's deal again voted it down.
The net result is that confusion over the country's future trading arrangements looks set to continue, with MPs now preparing to hold another set of indicative votes on Monday to try to form a consensus over what type of Brexit could command a majority.
A clear majority has repeatedly signalled its opposition to a 'no deal' Brexit, but such a scenario and the wide-ranging implications it would have for the green economy remain a distinct possibility.
The EU has signalled it will only support a further request for an extension of Article 50 if it is for a lengthy period that provides the UK with sufficient time to develop a coherent new strategy.
Immediately after the result of the vote was announced, EU Council President Donald Tusk called an emergency meeting of the EU Council on April 10 to discuss next steps.
Consequently, there are now two options on the table, each with very different consequences for the green economy.
May could defy Parliament and allow the UK to crash out of the EU without a deal on April 12, an outcome which green NGO coalition GreenerUK has repeatedly warned would be catastrophic for Britain's environmental protections and low-carbon industries.
The other option - which appears more likely - is for May to request a lengthy extension from the EU that could last a year or more. However, May has hinted she would not continue as Prime Minister if a lengthy extension of Article 50 was required.
Any extension would stave off the chaos of no deal, but would require the UK to participate in the European elections this Spring. It would also prolong the uncertainty green businesses are suffering and continue the drain on government resources many campaigners urgently argue must be refocused on policy support for climate targets, among other pressing national issues.
A lengthy delay to Brexit would require the UK to come forward with a new plan to break the current deadlock, with all possible scenarios likely to result in considerable uncertainty for green businesses and the future direction of environmental policy.
A number of other scenarios are also still in play, depending on the results of Monday's indicative votes. MPs could collectively back a softer Brexit, which could still lead to the Withdrawal Agreement passing by May 22, the deadline given by the EU for Brexit if May managed to get her deal through the Commons. MPs could also choose to back a confirmatory referendum, which would allow the Withdrawal Agreement to pass but would require a further extension to Articler 50 to allow the referendum to take place.
A general election is also a distinct possibility, although would again require a lengthy extension to Brexit. And at the same time the odds on a Conservative leadership election are also shortening rapidly - a scenario that would likely result in a wide-ranging contest featuring a number of candidates who have in the past been hostile to environmental action.