U.S. auto sales expected to fall again in March

New U.S. light-vehicle sales are projected to fall for the third straight month in March as the industry's winter chill seeps into spring.

Estimates from four forecasters call for declines between 1.5 percent and almost 7 percent from March 2018. Automakers are scheduled to report March results on Tuesday.

The seasonally adjusted, annualized selling rate is projected to range from 16.8 million to 17.2 million, based on estimates from Cox Automotive and Edmunds. Those would be in line with analysts' expectations for the year, which is forecast to come in below 17 million for the first time since 2014.

TrueCar's ALG expects a 1.5 percent sales decline from March 2018, which had one fewer selling day, while Edmunds anticipates a 4 percent dip, J.D. Power/LMC estimates a 5.6 percent decline and Cox predicts a 6.7 percent drop.

"The declines we're seeing at the start of 2019 are not unexpected," Oliver Strauss, ALG's chief economist, said in a statement. "Tariffs and the rising interest rate environment have made consumers a bit cautious; however, both the economy and the auto industry remain strong despite uncertainty about the future."

Analysts say the decline stems from an unsettled regulatory environment, as well as concerns that vehicles are becoming less affordable for consumers.

Cox said volatility in the stock market, uncertainty around President Donald Trump's trade policies and concerns about the potential for an economic slowdown might be scaring off some would-be buyers. It noted that continuing new-vehicle price increases coupled with tepid incentives also could be hampering sales.

U.S. sales fell 2.6 percent in the first two months of the year.

Average incentive spending by automakers is expected to fall to an estimated $3,604 per vehicle in March, down $191, or 5 percent, from a year earlier, ALG said. It estimates that the average transaction price for new light vehicles in March is $34,213, up 2.8 percent from a year earlier.

Another factor potentially hampering sales: tax reform. Cox noted that the tax law that took effect last year had positive implications in 2018 but has resulted in lower refunds for some consumers this tax season.

"For each of the last three years, new-vehicle sales have improved in the second half of the year for a variety of reasons," said Jonathan Smoke, Cox Automotive's chief economist. "It will be tougher to repeat that trend this year if the economy itself is slowing down."

Cox estimates that every automaker will experience a sales dip in March, led by declines of 12.6 percent for Nissan Group and 7.7 percent for Volkswagen of America. Among the Detroit 3, Cox expects FCA US and Ford Motor Co. to record 7.4 percent declines and General Motors to fall 7.2 percent.

Even Subaru, which has had 87 consecutive monthly sales increases, will slip -- by 0.2 percent -- Cox estimates.

ALG paints a rosier picture, with sales increases forecast for Subaru, Kia, Hyundai and Honda. It projects that Daimler will fare the worst with a 7.5 percent decline, followed by BMW with a 6.6 percent decrease and VW with a 4.8 percent drop.