Will the ghatbandhan, or alliance, of the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal transform the politics of the country, by stemming the Narendra Modi and BJP wave in Uttar Pradesh? In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won 71 seats in the State, with the SP getting five, the Congress two and the BSP none. But the vote pool of the BSP and the SP was only 1% less than the BJP’s share of the popular vote. Since the previous election, the Congress has been reduced to a minor player, except in Rae Bareli, Amethi and Unnao.
In central Uttar Pradesh, or the region of Awadh (or what would have been Awadh Pradesh had Mayawati’s plans to divide Uttar Pradesh into four States translated into reality), this regional assertion by the SP-BSP combine is seen as a key historical marker. For some, the battle of 2019 is the most significant milestone in the region since the East India Company annexed Awadh in 1856 (using the bizarre Doctrine of Lapse), an event that contributed to the sepoy mutineers launching the First War of Independence a year later.
For centuries, Awadh was the most prosperous part of northern India. Situated at the heart of the Indo-Gangetic plain, the Doabs of the Ganga and the Yamuna, its alluvial soil nursed crops through the year. The region was viewed as the granary of India.
Not surprisingly, for the British, reigning in Awadh was essential to gain access to its munificent coffers. In 2019, both symbolically and substantially, its 14 Lok Sabha seats are an important step to win Delhi.
On the verge of a take-off
Today, as you drive from Agra to Lucknow through the nearly 300-km expressway (cutting across Firozabad, Mainpuri, Etawah, Auraiya, Kannauj, Kanpur, Unnao and Hardoi), you witness roads that can compare to the German Autobahn. Despite the State’s record of poor governance, the region seems once again on the verge of a take-off. In SP leader Mulayam Singh’s birthplace of Saifi in Etawah, there are an air-conditioned cafeteria and a plush reading room, which has a collection of guide books for various professional exams and biographies of the socialist leader Ram Manohar Lohia, Kanshi Ram and B.R. Ambedkar together with an oddity: Rajni Kothari’s Politics in India.
In Lucknow, the heart of Awadh, there is the sense of a new Uttar Pradesh. The Gomti river-front signals an awareness of how nursing and nurturing rivers and their banks greatly contribute to rejuvenating the city. The Janeshwar Mishra Park, named after the political guru of Mr. Mulayam’s son and former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, claims to be one of Asia’s largest. The Ambedkar park, built by BSP chief Mayawati during her tenure as Chief Minister, in red Rajasthan sandstone overwhelm you as do the new plush buildings and malls of Gomti Nagar.
If the mornings have traditionally belonged to the ghats of Varanasi, the hedonist genteel evenings were the prosperous Awadh’s gift to the world. A syncretic culture, the ganga-jamuni tehzeeb, the Awadhi cuisine, the semi-classical music and Kathak were promoted by the Nawabs who had the mindfulness to realise that there are things that money cannot buy, but which still need to be promoted. That ended with the exiling of the last and most interesting of Nawabs, Wajid Ali Shah, to Bengal where he penned the words made popular later by K.L. Saigal in Babul Mera... (Street Singer) comparing his exile to a young bride’s separation from her family. The decline of Awadh has been powerfully captured by Satyajit Ray’s Shatranj-ke-Khilari, based on Munshi Premchand’s story.
Noblesse oblige may be history, but Lucknow is showing a remarkable new vitality. And it is not just evident in the fine Chikan embroidery revival by SEWA (Self Employed Women’s Association), or the international haute couture status given to zardosi and mukaish. The heritage Charbagh station, freshly painted, looks towards the metro which connects the Lucknow airport to the furthest end of the city; and while Hazratgunj and Ganjing may no longer be the passport to the real world for students sequestered at Isabelle Thoborn College: with its Kwality Restaurant, once legendary Ram Advani booksellers and the Mayfair cinema, there is a bit of “Ganj” in almost every part of this bustling new metropolis.
A naïve election observer like me begins the day with chai at Shuklaji’s teashop, where morning walkers have assembled after their constitutional, and then retreat for a Kachori at Bajpaiji’s to be washed down with a lassi at Ram Asrey’s mithai shop. By the end of the morning, you gain an understanding of the political fiza: Prime Minister Modi is still the most popular national leader, Yogi Adityanath is a loner, rarely smiles, even more rarely delegates and governs through bureaucrats. But Awadh is Awadh, the elders point out in unison: it shows leaders its place; it showed Indira Gandhi what it means to take the region for granted.
At dinner at the old city Chowk, with nihari gosht and steamed rice (a bit of Kashmir blended with Awadh), you know the Muslims have not changed their mind about the BJP. But will the BSP and the SP coming together make a difference?
After all, the bonhomie between Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati has to translate into transferring of votes on the ground, if the alliance have to live up to its potential. As one of the most poplar poets of the extended region, Shakeel Badayuni wrote in his famous Nazam: Mere Humsafir … Mere Humnawa. My friend and fellow traveller, do not betray me by pretending to be my friend. I am not frightened by the external enemy, but it is the fifth columnist within that I fear.”
How does this then pan out in terms of the 2019 Lok Sabha election, in terms of trends.
There is, at present, no wave and, under the circumstances, the arithmetic of caste, or more appropriately jati, will be an important, if not a dominant, factor in the election. Clearly, the BJP will emerge once again as the single largest party largely driven by the charisma of Prime Minister Modi. But their seat share could be reduced to no more than 45-50 in the State.
If the BSP-SP-RJD alliance works out, in letter and spirit, the BJP tally could go down further. The Congress will remain a fringe actor in the U.P. election, if Awadh is a good example. One more generalisation: the upper castes remain as intensely attached to the BJP as is the Muslim detachment. But as we travel through eastern and western U.P. and Bundelkhand, the complex story of the State will become clearer.
(The author is a Professor of International Relations at Jawaharal Nehru University and at the University of Melbourne)