Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar will play critical roles in determining who forms the next government in Delhi. With 120 seats between them, out of which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 93 seats last time (71 in UP and 22 in Bihar), this is the belt which made all the difference between BJP being the single largest force and attaining a majority on its own in 2014. This time around, it faces its most formidable challenge here in the form of a united Samajwadi Party(SP)-Bahujan Samaj Party(BSP) in UP, and a possible grand alliance led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar.

HT travelled to 15 constituencies in both states over the past fortnight. This spanned the regions of west UP, north and south Bihar, and we met voters across all caste groups and religions, with a particular focus on younger voters.

Here are some important caveats. The first phase of the election is only on April 11, and will continue till May second week. This is a long enough period for the mood to change. Candidates have not yet been declared for many seats. Also, voters we met were overwhelmingly men. There is also no way to ascertain how the ground mood will translate into seats in an ultra competitive election based on the first past the post system in which small vote swings can alter outcomes. But these are the emerging trends from the key heartland states.

Narendra Modi is hugely popular

A hawa is the only way to describe the mood on the ground. Narendra Modi remains enormously popular, especially among younger voters. Some admire his “strength”, others laud his “decisiveness”. Some believe he is a leader of the poor and cite his rural schemes, others see him as ushering in honesty in politics. Some argue he has risen above caste politics and is the true epitome of the nation, others say that there is no alternative which is as strong. When his supporters are questioned about governance deficits — from joblessness to agrarian distress — they shrug it off and claim that Modi cannot be blamed for everything and say that he needs more time. This election is becoming presidential in the heartland with a focus on national leadership. And if it indeed unfolds entirely along those lines, Modi would be a delighted man on May 23, when the votes are counted.

BJP has an umbrella Hindu coalition

The support for Modi comes from a wide range of Hindu caste groups. Both in UP and Bihar, upper castes appear to be firmly with the government. The resentment against the BJP for restoring provisions of the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act has all but dissipated and the 10% reservation for economically weaker sections has energised this constituency. More crucially, the sizeable but scattered smaller Other Backward Class (OBC) groups — both the Extremely Backward Class (EBC) caste groups in Bihar and the broad swathe of non-Yadav OBCs in UP — seem to be substantially with the BJP. There is a very strong sense of association with Modi. Besides, the BJP’s expansion into Dalit sub-groups has continued. Be it the Paswan or Ravidas community members in Bihar or Dhobis and Pasis in UP, the support for Modi was visible. Note, however, that among Hindu groups, both Yadavs and Jatavs in UP — and Yadavs in Bihar — are, for the most part, alienated from the BJP.

The SP-BSP arithmetic is formidable

The SP-BSP alliance in UP constitutes the single most important political challenge to the BJP in this election, and could well make the difference between Modi becoming Prime Minister or losing office. The two parties together command the loyalty of three substantial social groups: Muslims, Yadavs and Jatavs. It is certain that the alliance will do a lot better than the parties individually did in 2014, when SP won five seats and BSP won none. An India Today analysis found that Muslims, Yadavs and Dalits (caveat: all Dalits and not just Jatavs) constitute more than 50% of the voters in 47 of the 80 constituencies of the state. If there is a smooth transfer of votes, and consolidation of all non-BJP supporters behind the alliance candidates, even Modi’s popularity will not be able to overcome the arithmetic in a high number of seats.

The Congress is a spoiler in UP; adds little in Bihar

Pushed out of the SP-BSP alliance, the Congress is contesting on its own in UP. In west UP constituencies we travelled to, the Congress is competing more with the SP-BSP alliance than the BJP. Its Muslim candidates will erode the alliance votes. While in a range of other seats, where it is not a serious contender on its own, the Congress is likely to put up upper caste candidates to weaken the BJP, it is unlikely that there will be any large scale shift of the upper caste vote to the Congress. In Bihar, the Congress remains organisationally weak and does not have any substantial social group backing it; the delay in the announcement of the alliance with the RJD hampered the opposition efforts. In both states, Rahul Gandhi has limited appeal and voters barely mentioned the allegations around the government deal to buy Rafale fighter jets, a key campaign plank of the Congress.

The BJP’s narrative has the edge

Public conversations — in bazaars, village crossings, tea shops — revolve around themes that are central to the BJP’s campaign. The Balakot strikes are a recurring feature, with a large number of voters citing it as proof of Modi’s strength. But along with it, the central government’s work on rural welfare — toilets, gas connections, housing and electricity — is cited by supporters. On the other hand, the opposition’s dominant themes — of unemployment and agrarian distress — had receded from the conversations. Unless specifically asked about these issues, many did not raise them. Among the government’s critics, however, demonetisation continues to be cited as a major failure.

To conclude, with the BJP having peaked in UP in 2014 with 71 of 80 seats, and contesting in five fewer seats than it did in Bihar in 2014, it would be safe to suggest that its seat tally will dip. But these early trends from the heartland suggest that despite a formidable opposition alliance in UP and key social groups against it in both states, the BJP will be the party to beat in 2019.

First Published: Mar 23, 2019 08:20 IST