West Bengal was gearing up for a three-cornered election with the Trinamool Congress, the BJP and the Left-Congress alliance competing for votes. With the collapse of the seat-sharing arrangement between the Left and the Congress, the contest is now a four-cornered battle, putting the Left and the Congress at a disadvantage.
The split is likely to result in a sharp polarisation benefiting the Trinamool Congress and the BJP.
Voting trend
In the past elections, the Left Front’s vote share — even at a time when they lost miserably in the Assembly election in 2011 — was high. To the Trinamool’s 38.93%, the Left Front got 39.68% of the votes polled. However, between 2011 and 2016, the Left’s share dropped by 14%, whereas the Trinamool Congress’s went up by 6% and the Congress’s by about 3%. In the Lok Sabha election of 2014 too, the Left Front failed to reach a vote share of 30%.
The BJP’s vote share went up from a mere 4% in the 2011 Assembly election to 10% in 2016. The pattern indicates that the Left’s loss is the BJP’s gain.
A further reduction in the Left’s vote, which is likely after the split, will only help the BJP, observers says. But not entirely.
“A large section of Muslims are not very happy with the Trinamool. But, will they vote for the Congress and the Left Front knowing that they now have almost no chance of winning many seats after their split? I don’t think they will. Majority of them may now vote for the Trinamool, as no other party is in a position to resist the BJP,” said Abdul Matin, a faculty member in International Relations at Jadavpur University.
Thus, in three Muslim-majority districts of central Bengal, where the Trinamool is weak, the ruling party is expected to do well. But in the Hindu- majority areas, the BJP is expected to gain. “Due to this break-up of the Congress and the Left, in Hindu areas, where the incumbency factor is setting in after a decade of Trinamool rule, the BJP will gain,” a Trinamool party source said.
Party lines
Maidul Islam, a political scientist, said, “In Bengal, the voting behaviour is not always on communal grounds. Rather it is on party lines because of the politically conscious electorate. So the lack of an electoral adjustment between the Left and Congress is going to benefit the Trinamool for consolidating the anti-BJP vote. On the other hand, the anti-Trinamool vote can go the BJP where the Left is weak.”
Maidul Islam, a political scientist, says “The split will make the middle platform recede faster, fuelling a perception that two parties represent two communities, which is not good for the State and the country.” Two parties representing two communities “in a watertight manner is potentially dangerous”, he added.
This phenomenon is particularly expected in pockets of some bordering districts, where Dalit community [who came from Bangladesh] are “enamoured by Narendra Modi’s rhetoric on citizenship and in areas where Bengali-speaking population is low,” the TMC insider said. He further added, on condition of anonymity, Left-Congress’ split will “hurt the social fabric as BJP will now have a better chance to divide the State on a Hindu-Muslim line.”
Maidul Islam, a political scientist, says “There was already a perception that Hindus who are leaving the CPI(M) and Congress are voting for the BJP and Muslims [leaving CPI-M and Congress] for the TMC…the [Left-Congress] split will make the middle platform recede faster, fuelling a perception that two political parties represent two communities, which is not good for the State and the country,” Dr Islam said. Two parties representing two communities “in a watertight manner is potentially dangerous.”
“With the weakening of the third force [Left-Congress] in the State, this can effectively turn political violence to communal ones, perhaps benefiting TMC in the short run and BJP in the long term,” Dr Islam said.
The short-term benefit TMC was visible in the recent by-elections. In a 2018 by-poll in Uluberia Lok Sabha seat, TMC and BJP’s vote jointly jumped by a massive 25% while Congress and Left’s share dropped by 24%. Series of other recent Assembly by-polls that witnessed four-cornered contest produced near similar results.
As of now, TMC is still protected, especially in south where 75% of Bengal’s seats are located.However, if the slide continues, TMC will be facing “very serious challenge” in 2021 Assembly poll, the party leaders acknowledge.
For now, however, both TMC and the BJP are set to gain owing to a formal divorce of the Left and the Congress.