A week ago today, the sun was shining, traffic lights were all green and there were no babies crying.  This Monday morning…not so much.  We actually do have the grains trading a bit higher to start the week but the soy complex is soft and when you look to the outside markets, it would appear that most everyone is feeling a bit dour.  Equity markets are lower taking back a large portion of the Friday bounce, energies are soft and metals under fairly heavy selling pressure while the U.S. Dollar is a smidge higher.  

Providing a stark reminder (like we need one) of the demise of commodity prices and fortunes over the past several years, one time dominant commodity trading house, Glencore has been in the news quite a bit over the past week as vultures continue to circle overhead waiting to scavenge pieces from their carcass.  Over the weekend Horizonte purchased their Brazilian nickel project and the company was rewarded with another 25% drop in its stocks prices this morning.  For the year Glencore’s stock is down around 70% to record lows and its market capitalization is now around $18 billion, down from $60 billion just four years ago. You have also most likely heard the reports that Caterpillar has expanded layoffs and revenues are down at Deere and CNH.   One has to suspect that these are tail-end reactions that have finally filtered down, which traditionally intensify when you are reaching the end of a major readjustment swing. 

As expected, we have a large sales of beans to China reported this morning, 1 MMT and an additional 249k to unknown, released in the daily system. Of course this is the result of the meetings last week.

The trade is expecting to see the corn harvest to have reached the 20 to 25% range on this afternoon’s reports and beans in the 18 to 22% range.  Realistically, more important will be the Wednesday quarterly grain stocks report, even though these quarterly reports are often overlooked by many traders.  The latest estimates we have seen have September 1^st corn stocks at 1.739 billion, beans at 205 million and wheat at 2.149 billion. 

The Hog and Pigs report issued last Friday was largely uneventful but does reflect growth, which should be supportive for feedstuffs.  All hogs and pigs came in at 104% of last year, kept for breeding at 101%, and kept for market at 104%. 

We do see a few scattered showers in the forecast for this week but no major fronts that should hinder harvest for an extended period.  For we here in Northern Illinois, it sounds as if the recent extended summer temperatures we have experienced will be coming to an end so it is finally time to pull out the jackets and sweaters once again. 

Yield reports continue to be very erratic with more than 100 bpa swings in corn and 25 to 30 in beans.  As we have commented previously, with the inconsistency that should be seen this year, we may not have a solid handle on crop size until we see the final production numbers in January.