May's Third Vote Penciled In for Tuesday: Brexit Update
(Bloomberg) -- Prime Minister Theresa May is still fighting to get her twice-rejected Brexit deal through the British Parliament. Her deputy said on Friday that if she fails, the U.K. risks being forced to extend its membership by over a year.
Key Developments:
Third Vote on May’s Deal Likely Tuesday: Official (11:35 a.m.)
May’s Brexit deal will most likely be put to a third vote in Parliament on Tuesday, according to an official who declined to be named discussing unannounced plans.
While May’s deal has already been resoundingly defeated twice in the House of Commons, her team is trying to persuade the pro-Brexit wing of her party and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party to change their minds. Cabinet ministers are meeting with the DUP on Friday as part of those efforts, the official said.
May has given Parliament an ultimatum of March 20 to approve a Brexit deal. If it does so, she’ll ask the EU for a short extension. If it doesn’t, the premier has warned that a much longer extension will be required, and the U.K. will have to participate in elections for the European Parliament in May.
Early signs are the Tory Brexiteers, at least, will be hard to persuade (see 9 a.m. post).
Business Should Still Prepare for No-Deal (11:10 a.m.)
Notwithstanding Thursday evening’s resounding vote by the House of Commons to delay Brexit, companies should continue to prepare for the country to crash out of the European Union on March 29, said Prime Minister Theresa May’s spokeswoman, Alison Donnelly.
“The government is continuing to prepare for a no-deal scenario and that is what businesses should also continue to do," Donnelly said. “Obviously last night set about a process whereby if the House finds a way to support a deal by March 20, we will then seek a short extension at the end of next week at European Council.”
Donnelly’s comments reflect that delaying Brexit isn’t entirely in the U.K.’s control: The EU’s other 27 members have to agree to an extension too.
EU’s Hogan Calls U.K. Tariff Plan ‘Political Stunt’ (10:30 a.m.)
Irishman Phil Hogan, the EU commissioner for agriculture, called the U.K.’s tariffs plan “a political stunt” to weaken European support for Ireland. It also breaches WTO rules, Hogan said in Dublin. On a possible prolongation of the Brexit process, Hogan said he would prefer a short extension to force negotiations, although he accepted it could be something longer.
Earlier:
Brexiteers Don’t See Irish Backstop Escape Route (9 a.m.)
Pro-Brexit Conservatives said they don’t see the Vienna Convention as a viable escape route from so-called Irish backstop -- the bit of May’s deal they hate most.
Since the deal was defeated for a second time on Tuesday, May’s team has been in talks with Tory rebels and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party on what extra legal reassurances could be provided to persuade them to back the deal in a third vote.
Efforts have focused on Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on international treaties, spelling out how countries can unilaterally leave an agreement.
But the Brexiteer’s panel of legal experts, led by the Tory MP Bill Cash, issued its verdict on Friday, saying Attorney General Geoffrey Cox’s understanding of Article 62 is “clearly erroneous.”
“Given the high burden that a state must meet to use it, and given the extreme reluctance of international courts and tribunals to accept it," the lawyers wrote, it "supplies no assurance whatsoever that the U.K. could terminate the Withdrawal Agreement in a lawful manner.’’
EU Signals a Delay Could Be Over a Year (8:50 a.m.)
The European Union has indicated that if Parliament doesn’t pass May’s Brexit deal this month, it could force the U.K. into an extension of more than a year, according to the prime minister’s de facto deputy, David Lidington
Asked on BBC radio if a long delay could be many months, or over a year, Lidington said: "Those are the indications" from EU institutions and some member states.
He urged MPs to back the deal, which is expected to come back for a third vote next week.
"The great virtue of the deal on the table is that it has been agreed not just by the British government, it’s been agreed by all the 27 other governments around the EU," he said. "For that reason I hope that MPs of all parties will be this weekend just reflecting on the way forward."
Earlier:
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