Goa: With Manohar Parrikar away from field, wary BJP played it safe

PANAJI: Facing disgruntlement within and outside the party, allies snapping at its heels and its master strategist chief minister Manohar Parrikar battling a dreaded illness, BJP was keen on holding bypolls with the general elections so that it would have enough time to “convince alliance partners and win over discontented supporters”. The rest of the concerns, the party felt, would be negated by Narendra Modi charisma that would help them retain both the Lok Sabha seats and wrest Mandrem and Shiroda back from Congress to give stability to the coalition government.

The defections of Congress MLAs—Dayanand Sopte and Subhash Shirodkar—led to revolt within BJP and discord among its coalition partner MGP.

Byelection loss would affect Lok Sabha poll: Analysts

While MGP immediately announced its intent to contest from both the seats, former chief minister Laxmikant Parsekar put up a belligerent front and threatened to contest from Mandrem.

Facing a multi-pronged attack, BJP was of the opinion that simultaneous elections would provide them some breathing space to convince Parsekar and its coalition partner against going ahead with their plan.

Sources said BJP felt that if the byelections are delayed, the momentum gained by Parsekar and MGP would decline and enable the saffron party to secure both the seats. The idea, sources said, was to mount pressure on PWD minister Ramkrishna ‘Sudin’ Dhavalikar to ensure MGP does not contest from Shiroda, and persuade Parsekar to withdraw from the race.

“The perceived paralysis in the government administration, the mining crisis, the agitation against coal and various other issues has alienated a considerable section of its supporters from BJP. The delay that led to announcement of the elections definitely provided a window to the BJP to address such issues,” veteran political commentator Uday Bhembre said.

Analysts feel that BJP’s concerns were fueled by the probability of the adverse impact any loss in the bypolls would have had on the Lok Sabha polls if they were not held together and it was part of a well thought out national strategy.

In 40-member Goa legislative assembly, the present strength of the assembly is 37, Congress has 14 MLAs, BJP 13, three each belong to Goa Forward Party and MGP and three Independents and one NCP MLA.

“Had the byelections been held earlier, even if BJP were to lose a seat, it wouldn’t have had much impact on the government, but a wrong signal would have gone across the state that BJP was losing its grip over the electorate and this could have impacted the Lok Sabha elections,” a political observer said.

Analysts also feel that BJP’s insistence on simultaneous polls was also driven by the “premise” that “an artificially created Modi wave” would, besides enabling it to win the Lok Sabha elections, would also influence the electoral outcomes of the bypolls.

“It’s a part of self aggrandisement on the part of BJP. When Modi is winning the elections, and if, say a Subhash Shirodkar is also contesting simultaneously, both would win riding on the same wave. That may have been the basic premise of BJP for holding simultaneous polls, but it could well be its delusion,” Bhembre said. “That way, BJP could go on an overdrive promoting the government’s achievements that could possibly eclipse the local issues in the byelections.”

Nevertheless, the holding of by elections beyond the statutory six-month limit of the occurrence of the vacancy has stirred a debate among political pundits.

“There could be practical issues, more particularly that the state should not be plunged into election code of conduct for a very long period, might have weighed for announcement of simultaneous elections,” former state election commissioner and political commentator Prabhakar Timble said.

Cautioning against the situation turning into a precedent, Timble demanded that the Election Commission come clear on the issue and “record reasons to maintain people’s esteem” in the institution. “Whatever the issues, this cannot be quoted as precedent providing licence to the Election Commission to deviate on statutory requirement and established constitutional convention,” Timble said.