Five years after leading the Shiv Sena from the front in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Uddhav Thackeray is facing a new challenge – to defend his decision to ally with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in front of the cadre and voters, after targeting the BJP governments at the Centre and in the state for more than four years.

Nearly a month after the alliance between the Sena and BJP was announced, Thackeray, in almost all interactions and addresses to party cadre and functionaries, has justified his U-turn, stating it was because of the prevailing political scenario and in the interest of the party. Political observers point out the change in stance could affect the party on two fronts – cadre and voters.

The Sena functionaries point out the decision to join hands with the BJP was the only way forward. “No political party is going it alone in these elections. Everybody is part of an alliance. In such a scenario, Uddhavji felt that going solo would hamper the chances for the Sena, as it would divide votes and help the Opposition parties,” said a senior party functionary, requesting anonymity.

ALLIANCE BENEFITS

The Sena, on the other hand, has not got a raw deal in the alliance. The regional party has managed to squeeze out a Lok Sabha seat held by the national party and forced the BJP-led Maharashtra government to scrap the oil refinery project in Nanar, Ratnagiri, among other things. The alliance is also expected to benefit the Sena in regions where it does not have a strong foothold, such as Vidarbha, and also in several rural and urban areas where the BJP is considered to have an upper hand. If it would have been a triangular fight in Maharashtra, the Sena would have failed to retain most of its seats in Mumbai, some constituencies in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region and Vidarbha. It will further consolidate its strength in the Konkan region, as it has managed to scrap the oil refinery project, where former Sena leader Narayan Rane could have created a dent in the numbers. Party leaders were also wary of some MPs and legislators crossing over to the BJP in case the party went solo.

UNHAPPY CADRE

With the Sena leadership and mouthpiece targeting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP governments for past four years, the party cadre had made up its mind to fight against the BJP. In several constituencies, there was animosity between the cadre of both the parties. Now, with the alliance, party workers at several locations are unwilling to canvass for BJP candidates, given the bitterness between them. The Sena and BJP leaderships have realised this and are planning to conduct joint rallies to show a united front. Political analyst Prakash Bal said the Sena is dealing with a “perception problem” and the “somersault” by the leadership ahead of the general election has left the cadre dissatisfied. “I doubt if the Sena will be able to retain all its seats in the Lok Sabha. The cadre at the ground level is completely dissatisfied because after criticising the BJP for nearly four-and-a-half years and deciding to go solo, the leadership decided to have an alliance. The voters, too, perceive the Sena as a confused party. They can be reduced to single digits,” Bal said.

CHANGED PERCEPTION

The Sena is a party that runs on strong leadership. After initial hiccups, Uddhav Thackeray has managed to show that he can take a strong stand. His tirade against Modi, even when the prime minister was topping the popularity charts, helped him create that perception. The Sena cadre supported him, taking a hard stand and the Sena chief managed to come out of the shadow of his father Bal Thackeray, who was a fiery speaker and a crowd puller. Over the years, Thackeray has emerged as a calm, composed and calculative politician. Jondhale said Thackeray saw the opportunity after the BJP lost the Assembly polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh , and “reminded” them about Sena’s ‘big brother’ status. “The Sena did not want an alliance, but political necessity forced them to do it. It had to be done on its terms to save face,” said Surendra Jondhale, political analyst.

CHALLENGES

The Sena is expected to repeat most of its sitting 18 MPs for the 2019 elections. Senior leaders said the leadership is expected to campaign aggressively in rural Maharashtra, as it does not want to face the backlash of the agrarian crisis in the state. “The drought in the state is a major issue, and it will worsen as the campaigning progresses towards March-end and April. We have already started relief-related work,” a Sena leader said.

Jondhale said the Sena could bear the brunt of the “wrongdoings” of the BJP government. “Whether it is GST or demonetisation or farm distress, these issues will hurt the Sena, as there is a silent political wave against Narendra Modi. If the Congress-NCP capitalises on this, it would hurt the ruling party in rural areas,” he said.

Thackeray and his son Aaditya will have to ensure the party retains its Lok Sabha seats.

It will form the basis of their next goal – to regain the position of big brother in this year’s Assembly polls.

First Published: Mar 13, 2019 00:03 IST