Battlelines drawn as parties look at Bengal's 42 to set Delhi agenda
TNN | Mar 11, 2019, 05:59 IST
The state gears up for a seven-phase poll this timeKOLKATA: Bengal's 42 constituencies go to the polls over 39 days in seven phases from April 11 to May 19, with the prime competitors looking to bag as many seats as possible to give shape to their idea of the next Union government and the chase for numbers running the risk of ending up in a violent no-holds-barred, no-punches-pulled battle.
The Trinamool Congress will be looking to maximise its harvest from the only state where it is a serious player; getting as close as possible to the magic figure of 42 out of 42 will boost its chances of being the third-largest bloc in the next Lok Sabha and emerging as a king-maker.
The BJP, likewise, will be trying to undo the Trinamool plan; its leaders have already been talking about a double-digit return from Bengal. This will help the party compensate possible losses from states (like Uttar Pradesh) that it swept in 2014 and where it might not do so well this time.
The Congress and the Left Front have also started serious seat-sharing parleys to consolidate the anti-Trinamool-anti-BJP vote share, which may yet be substantial enough to upset the Trinamool's and the BJP's plans in some constituencies.
Bengal, however, will offer an interesting deviation from the united-opposition vision that has been floated in Delhi. The two most aggressive anti-BJP parties nationally - the Congress and the Trinamool - may chart very different routes in Bengal to their common goal in Delhi.
What will add an extra edge to the polls in Bengal is the fact that it comes a few weeks after an unprecedented centre-versus-state stand-off over former Kolkata Police commissioner Rajeev Kumar. Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee herself went to the commissioner's official Loudon Street residence on February 3 soon after getting news of a CBI team arriving there. The eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation ended after a few days but a bitter legal battle continues.
The CPM reaped the fruits of political polarisation in Bengal in 1996 when Jyoti Basu was offered the PM's post; Banerjee has emerged as the opposition's face in Bengal now and would like to take advantage of that. But the BJP, too, will seek to take advantage of the the breathtaking changes in Bengal and national politics to work on its own polarisation model, where the national-versus-anti-national, refugee-versus-infiltrator, appeasement-versus-zero appeasement debates have grown stronger after the Pulwama terror attack.
The outpouring of nationalist sentiments has put other economic and political issues on the back burner and anti-BJP parties will hope that they return to the top of the voter's mind as the poll dates inch closer. The BJP's attempt to brand the opposition "pro-Pakistan" has its risks too; overuse of this sensitive weapon may be counter-productive in urban areas and a swing either way may upset electoral calculations.
Banerjee, who has used demonetisation, intolerance and use of central agencies and has focused on Bengal's "asmita" and is being projected as a future PM by her party, starts with an advantage: her party's organisational muscle and support base allow it to dominate every neighbourhood.
The BJP is still a distant second in most of Bengal. It may have eaten into LF and Congress votes but is yet to make any substantial dent in the Trinamool's vote share except in pockets. It had a 20%-plus vote share in 12 LS seats in 2014 at the height of the Modi wave.
The Trinamool has 32 MPs in Bengal but BJP may fancy its chances of giving the Trinamool a tough time in seats like Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, Raiganj, Balurghat, Malda Uttar, Krishnanagar, Purulia, Midnapore, Asansol, Kolkata Uttar, Howarh and Bongaon. The BJP is already the second force in Cooch Behar, Kanthi and Uluberia, has done well in some assembly bypolls (Noapara) and civic polls (Durgapur, Cooper's Camp in Nadia) and has finished ahead of the CPM and the Congress in the 2018 panchayat polls.
What will add to the Trinamool's worries is the unpredictability of how the disgruntled in its ranks will behave; intra-Trinamool feuds have often led to clashes and murders and security has been increased for as many as 17 Trinamool leaders.
The Trinamool Congress will be looking to maximise its harvest from the only state where it is a serious player; getting as close as possible to the magic figure of 42 out of 42 will boost its chances of being the third-largest bloc in the next Lok Sabha and emerging as a king-maker.
The BJP, likewise, will be trying to undo the Trinamool plan; its leaders have already been talking about a double-digit return from Bengal. This will help the party compensate possible losses from states (like Uttar Pradesh) that it swept in 2014 and where it might not do so well this time.
The Congress and the Left Front have also started serious seat-sharing parleys to consolidate the anti-Trinamool-anti-BJP vote share, which may yet be substantial enough to upset the Trinamool's and the BJP's plans in some constituencies.
Bengal, however, will offer an interesting deviation from the united-opposition vision that has been floated in Delhi. The two most aggressive anti-BJP parties nationally - the Congress and the Trinamool - may chart very different routes in Bengal to their common goal in Delhi.
What will add an extra edge to the polls in Bengal is the fact that it comes a few weeks after an unprecedented centre-versus-state stand-off over former Kolkata Police commissioner Rajeev Kumar. Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee herself went to the commissioner's official Loudon Street residence on February 3 soon after getting news of a CBI team arriving there. The eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation ended after a few days but a bitter legal battle continues.
The CPM reaped the fruits of political polarisation in Bengal in 1996 when Jyoti Basu was offered the PM's post; Banerjee has emerged as the opposition's face in Bengal now and would like to take advantage of that. But the BJP, too, will seek to take advantage of the the breathtaking changes in Bengal and national politics to work on its own polarisation model, where the national-versus-anti-national, refugee-versus-infiltrator, appeasement-versus-zero appeasement debates have grown stronger after the Pulwama terror attack.
The outpouring of nationalist sentiments has put other economic and political issues on the back burner and anti-BJP parties will hope that they return to the top of the voter's mind as the poll dates inch closer. The BJP's attempt to brand the opposition "pro-Pakistan" has its risks too; overuse of this sensitive weapon may be counter-productive in urban areas and a swing either way may upset electoral calculations.
Banerjee, who has used demonetisation, intolerance and use of central agencies and has focused on Bengal's "asmita" and is being projected as a future PM by her party, starts with an advantage: her party's organisational muscle and support base allow it to dominate every neighbourhood.
The BJP is still a distant second in most of Bengal. It may have eaten into LF and Congress votes but is yet to make any substantial dent in the Trinamool's vote share except in pockets. It had a 20%-plus vote share in 12 LS seats in 2014 at the height of the Modi wave.
The Trinamool has 32 MPs in Bengal but BJP may fancy its chances of giving the Trinamool a tough time in seats like Cooch Behar, Alipurduar, Raiganj, Balurghat, Malda Uttar, Krishnanagar, Purulia, Midnapore, Asansol, Kolkata Uttar, Howarh and Bongaon. The BJP is already the second force in Cooch Behar, Kanthi and Uluberia, has done well in some assembly bypolls (Noapara) and civic polls (Durgapur, Cooper's Camp in Nadia) and has finished ahead of the CPM and the Congress in the 2018 panchayat polls.
What will add to the Trinamool's worries is the unpredictability of how the disgruntled in its ranks will behave; intra-Trinamool feuds have often led to clashes and murders and security has been increased for as many as 17 Trinamool leaders.
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