How the west might be won: Scott Morrison chases a repeat of 2007
Scott Morrison has not forgotten Western Australia’s decision to buck the trend in 2007 when, by-and-large, it resisted the Kevin Rudd juggernaut and voted to keep John Howard’s Coalition government.
Throughout his three-day tour of Perth this week, the Prime Minister has implored voters to recall the Rudd government’s record the way he does: the deluge of boats, a persistent budget deficit and "programs that set fire, literally, to people’s roofs".
"You vote Labor once, you pay for it for a decade," he said. "Labor can stuff it all up in about 12 weeks, let alone 12 months."
As he tries to sandbag vulnerable Liberal seats ahead of the May election, Mr Morrison is asking constituents in this notoriously independent-minded state to again resist what appears to be a national sentiment for change.
In the same way the mining boom worked for Mr Howard in 2007, the Prime Minister hopes the extra billions delivered into WA’s coffers via his GST "fix" will convince the state to stick with the status quo.
While a swing toward Labor is widely expected in WA, it is not guaranteed. "The west can do things differently," as one veteran adviser put it this week. Case in point: Cowan, currently held by Labor’s Anne Aly on a razor thin margin, but a seat some optimistic Liberals think they can win.
Taking in Perth’s multicultural and working class northern suburbs, Cowan was Labor for most of the Howard years, but swung to the Liberals in 2007 along with Swan, delivering the Coalition a net gain in WA while it crashed elsewhere.
The Cowan community is rapidly changing. In the nearby City of Wanneroo, 41 per cent of the population was born overseas. For the third year in a row it hosted the country’s largest Australia Day citizenship ceremony. "We had to hire the biggest marquee in the Southern Hemisphere," said mayor Tracey Roberts.
On Thursday, 300 people crammed into the Koondoola Community Centre to welcome Mr Morrison and the Liberal candidate, Isaac Stewart, a football manager and former journalist. While it is not unusual for Prime Ministers to be mobbed for selfies, on this occasion the crush was so intense police bodyguards eventually made the decision to pull Mr Morrison out.
The strikingly diverse crowd included migrants from Nepal, India, Bhutan and Myanmar, with dozens decked out in traditional dress from their homeland. Nau Zaung, who came to Australia in 2003 from northern Myanmar and now lectures at Curtin University, said she trusted Mr Morrison to maintain an orderly immigration system. "We can’t keep up, we have to be fair to everyone," she said.
The speeches also took on a different flavour. Mr Morrison used cooking a curry as a metaphor for Australia ("so many different ingredients coming from so many different parts of the world"), while Mr Stewart told the crowd his policy priorities were language studies, sister cities and humanitarian aid.
Liberals are divided on their chances in the seat, where Dr Aly enjoys a high profile and campaigns assiduously. Like Herbert in Queensland or Lindsay in NSW, the slim margin (0.68 per cent) means it is low-hanging fruit for a government that needs to win seats back to regain a majority. The road to an against-the-odds victory in May leads through places like Cowan.
But Mr Morrison also faces potential losses in WA, especially in the seat of Swan, where Kim Beazley’s daughter Hannah is taking on the Liberal incumbent Steve Irons. The departure of Michael Keenan in Stirling makes that seat a prime Labor target, while Attorney-General Christian Porter faces a battle to retain Pearce.
Andrew Hastie, a rising star among the Coalition’s conservatives, will be tested in the south side seat of Canning. And while Curtin remains safe Liberal territory, bitter factional warfare will come to a head on Sunday when preselectors meet to choose a replacement for the outgoing former foreign minister and deputy leader Julie Bishop.