A national security election gives Rahul Gandhi the perfect excuse to lose

It is being widely believed that a national security crisis will ensure a second term for Narendra Modi. But just as tensions with Pakistan have been a godsend for Modi, so they have been for Rahul Gandhi too. After a poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress supporters will be able to say ‘we were going to win, but Pulwama happened’.

No guys, you were never going to win. The “improvement” in Rahul Gandhi as a leader was more imagined than real, more incidental than substantial.

The 11th of December 2018 was a turning point when the BJP suffered a shock defeat, losing three crucial states in the Hindi heartland. The political momentum, the national narrative began going against Modi. This was the big opportunity for Rahul Gandhi to strike.

Here’s what Rahul Gandhi needed to do between 11 December and the Pulwama attack on 14 February.

First, he should have waged a nationwide campaign on unemployment and farm distress.

Second, he should have forged pre-poll alliances with regional parties across the country.

Third, he should have launched Priyanka Gandhi to make up for the absence of Sonia Gandhi from active campaigning, and to make up for the lack of his own political charisma.

He bungled up on all three fronts.

These three things together could have helped the Congress project a national alternative to the Narendra Modi-led BJP. They could have made voters feel that there is a viable national alternative to Modi and no, it won’t be a hotchpotch, unstable Third Front lasting two years.

Selling oranges when people want apples

If Rahul Gandhi were a fruit seller, he would sell people oranges when they want apples. As a politician, he’s offering people an anti-corruption narrative when they want an anti-unemployment narrative.

The message from the three states was clear: development, governance, economic issues, farm distress were the things voters were concerned about. What did Rahul Gandhi do to take forward the momentum from there? Rafale, Rafale, Rafale.

If you are a real politician and not a Supreme Court lawyer, your job is to keep your ear to the ground and be the voice of the people. Your job is to reflect people’s concerns, and confront the government on those issues. challenging the government about them.

Rahul Gandhi kept harping on Rafale because he felt it could help build his brand and bring down Modi’s. He felt he could do a David upon Goliath Modi. But in politics, there’s only one way to defeat your opponent: by having public opinion on your side.

People have been waiting for a leader who can talk about their woes regarding unemployment, low farm incomes and shrinking real wages. The Congress can say it has been raising these issues, but then it has been raising all issues anyway. What you choose to elevate to the level of a campaign is the real question. If one closes one’s eyes and tries to recall what Rahul Gandhi has been saying over the last few weeks, one can only think of Rafale and ‘Chowkidar chor hai’. Rahul has failed to give any such slogan on the issues foremost on people’s minds – unemployment and farm distress.

While Rahul failed to build upon the 11 December momentum, Modi addressed these issues with a job quota for upper caste poor and a scheme to give small farmers Rs 6,000 a year.

A failure at alliance-making

Rahul Gandhi may be poor at figuring out the right political narrative but perhaps he knows how to do pre-poll alliances.

At the time of writing this article, it is 7 March. Election dates are going to be announced anytime now. The Congress has finalised pre-poll alliances in only two states, Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand. The alliance with DMK in Tamil Nadu was announced only on 5 March. The Congress is yet to finalise its alliances in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra or any other state. The failure to stitch an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party will make the voters in Delhi see the Congress as irrelevant in the capital’s seven seats.

By contrast, the BJP has sealed its alliance even in a state like Tamil Nadu where it hardly has a presence. The only major state where the BJP is yet to seal a pre-poll alliance is Uttar Pradesh, where it is going to contest most seats anyway.

The Congress was edged out of the SP-BSP-RLD alliance in Uttar Pradesh partly due to Rahul Gandhi’s arrogance. What explains the lethargy in other states? Certainly not the events in Pulwama and Balakot. If anything, the national security crisis gave the Congress free time to finish the backroom work since a lot of their public programmes were suspended.

In January, Rahul Gandhi took two holidays. He went to Goa in January-end. Perhaps, he really needed to interact with the NRIs in Dubai to win the election but from there he just disappeared into nowhere for several days. Rahul Gandhi’s supporters call it work-life balance but the work is far behind Narendra Modi’s efforts.

Wasting your Brahmastra 

Only the Congress could be so smart at political communication that it announced Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s entry into formal politics while she was still in the United States. Only the Congress could be so shrewd as to not make Priyanka Gandhi give a speech at a Lucknow roadshow, which marked her plunge into public life.

Rahul Gandhi should have launched Priyanka long ago, but perhaps he was insecure that she might overshadow him. After winning three states on 11 December, he felt less insecure. He should have immediately roped Priyanka in, because the Congress desperately needs a big star campaigner. The Congress desperately needs someone who can speak well and energise the party cadres and take on Narendra Modi.

Instead, the Priyanka card was played in a way that made sure it wouldn’t work. Perhaps, this wasn’t a deliberate attempt by Rahul Gandhi to end the clamour to replace him with Priyanka. Perhaps, it was just about giving political cover to Robert Vadra’s corruption allegations. Any which way, the Priyanka card has been wasted for now.

The responsibility for wasting the Priyanka Brahmastra has to lie more with the party president than with her. The siblings can now blame their poor performance on Modi making it a national security election. Doing so would be a dog-ate-my-homework excuse. Truth be told, the Congress has lost the plot because Rahul Gandhi remains India’s most pointless politician.

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