The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
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The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Paul Georgy serves as president/CEO of Allendale, Inc., a worldwide agricultural advisory and research firm that provides agricultural commodity price research and risk management alternatives for producers, major food companies, international corporations, foreign governments, and major news vendors.
Good Morning from Allendale, Inc. with the early morning commentary for March 6, 2019.
Grain markets are slightly lower as traders prepare for the upcoming USDA reports on Friday. Today's ethanol report, and tomorrow's weekly export sales report could give clues as to where USDA may be headed with ending stocks numbers in reports to come.
Allendale's annual acreage survey will conclude this Friday, but we can still use your help! US planted acreage intentions will soon become a major trade focus, and your estimates help us all gain insight into what the USDA will report later this month. Submit your acreage estimates here. Thank you!
Average estimates for this Friday's USDA Supply and Demand report were released by Reuters. Analysts see soybeans ending stocks at .902 billion bushels, wheat 1.020, and corn at 1.736 billion bushels. World ending stocks are estimated at 267.47 million tonnes for wheat, 309.06 corn, and 106.33 soybeans.
South American numbers have Argentina's corn production at 45.92 million tonnes and soybeans at 55.23. Brazilian corn production is estimated at 94.66 million tonnes, and soybeans at 115.73.
Russia's ag ministry stated their wheat harvest could be as high as 80 million tonnes if conditions are right. For now, they estimate the wheat crop between 75 and 78 million tonnes, and total grain harvest at 118 million tonnes. Both increases over last year.
Commitments of Traders numbers for the week ending February 26th had funds selling 18,184 contracts (net) to be short 104,459. In soybeans they bought a net 6,828 to reduce their short position to 35,982, and in wheat they sold a net 15,849 and were net short 58,567. The CFTC report releases will be caught up with this Friday's release.
Egypt, the world's largest wheat importer, has rejected a shipment of Romanian wheat over a "quality issue," an official with knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Tuesday. "We have given a final rejection, it is now up to the seller and Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) to decide how they will deal with their contract," the official said. (Reuters)
Managed money funds were estimated buyers of 7,000 corn contracts and 5,000 wheat in yesterday's trade. They were sellers of 4,000 soybeans, 1,000 soymeal, and 2,000 soyoil.
Funds in live cattle were buyers again, this time of 6,550 net contracts to bring their long position to 122,157 through February 26th. In hogs they were net buyers of 3,658 contracts to be short 5,490.
Cattle on Feed report will be released this Friday at 2:00 PM. Allendale forecasts January placements at 1.898 million head, 8.2% under last year. January placements determine a portion of July - October slaughter numbers. This would now mark five months in a row of below last year placements. We see January marketings at 1.7% over last year.
The average market hog for the week ending February 16 came in at 213 lbs. per carcass. This marks five weeks in a row at that weight. This is 0.9% over last year. That implies a well-supplied market.
Dressed Beef Values were higher with choice up 0.49 and select up 0.58. The CME feeder index is 139.63. Pork cut-out values were down .34.
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