Theresa May’s Chief Whip Tells Cabinet Brexit Vote Will Be Tight

(Bloomberg) -- Theresa May’s Chief Whip, Julian Smith, told Cabinet he wasn’t confident the premier will get her Brexit deal through Parliament next week.

According to three people who spoke on condition of anonymity, Smith told ministers on Tuesday that the vote, likely to be on March 12, will be tight.

With Britain due to leave the European Union in 24 days, May is pursuing a three-pronged strategy to try to get members of Parliament to back her deal:

• Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is trying to negotiate new language around the contentious Irish backstop -- which keeps the U.K. in a customs union with the EU unless or until a future trade deal makes border checks unnecessary -- to show how Britain could leave it if it chose. He went to Brussels after the Cabinet meeting for more talks
• Labour MPs are being offered money for their districts, some of the hardest hit by austerity over the last decade, as well as assurances that workers’ rights won’t be watered down after Brexit
• Conservative Brexit-backers are being warned that if this deal is rejected, May will be forced to seek an extension to negotiations, potentially putting Britain’s departure from the EU at risk

But none of these are going well.

One person familiar with May’s thinking said the government isn’t expecting a breakthrough from Cox’s talks with the EU on Tuesday evening, and that negotiations could go into the weekend. That would allow little time for MPs to scrutinize any changes he manages to secure.

Labour MPs have also been dismissive of the money offered to their districts, and while some Conservatives have been swayed by the threat they might lose Brexit unless they back May’s deal, others say they’re standing firm.

Lacking a parliamentary majority, May needs to win as many Tories over as possible, and gather enough Labour rebels to offset the unpersuaded Tories.

If May’s deal is defeated on March 12, it’s likely Parliament will reject a no-deal Brexit the following day and then order May to seek a delay to Brexit on March 14 -- though the EU would have to agree to do so.

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.