Will the AIADMK alliance sustain the momentum?

The year 2019 will go down in the history of Tamil Nadu’s politics as more than an election year. The year will be the first to witness in several decades the absence of one formidable leader who drove and redefined the politics of Tamil Nadu for well over half a century and another who worked through a mess to sustain her party as a Dravidian major. But unlike the former, M Karunanidhi, who had a well charted plan for succession in place, the latter, J Jayalalithaa, left her party as exactly as she had inherited it: in a mess.

Whether the changed equations will have any impact on the electoral process is anybody’s guess. The electorate might miss the fiery rhetoric of Jayalalithaa just as it would miss the witty repartees of Karunanidhi during campaigns. Yet, for now, the run-up to elections in Tamil Nadu is as heated as any other election the state has faced.

Led by chief minister, Edappadi K Pazhanisamy, and deputy chief minister, O Paneerselvam, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) has stitched together what is now being seen as a mega alliance. Under this alliance, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) will contest seven seats and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) five. On the other hand, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has allotted 10 seats to the Congress in its alliance while still being in talks with other partners, including the Left, Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi.

Severely criticised on social media for aligning with the AIADMK after declaring repeatedly over the years that the PMK will not ally with any of the Dravidian majors in the state, PMK leaders sought to downplay the backlash. “Circumstances were different in the absence of Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa, warranting a difference in strategy”, Anbumani Ramadoss said in a press meet. He perhaps also rightly pointed out that neither the media nor the general public endorsed or appreciated their stance of not allying with any Dravidian major. It was only in alliance with either the AIADMK or the DMK that the PMK has managed to win seats although its vote bank of around 6% — concentrated among the Vanniyars — has remained more or less intact in every election.

In the caste driven electoral politics of Tamil Nadu, the Vanniyar vote bank might indeed make a difference to the AIADMK alliance. Yet the opportunist politics of the PMK has not gone down well with the general public — something that the DMK front is hoping to cash in on. While Ramadoss does say that no party both at national level and at state level could claim to have not engaged in such politics, he perhaps conveniently overlooks the fact that in doing so, PMK has been more blatant than other political parties in the state. Adopting a similar blatant and cutthroat approach in 2009, the PMK came a cropper despite being accommodated in the AIADMK-led coalition.

The Thevar vote bank, which was consistently with the AIADMK, might take a different course with the TTV Dinakaran led Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam pitted against the AIADMK. It was widely believed that the Thevars owed their allegiance to the AIADMK only because of Sasikala and her family. It remains to be seen whether O Paneerselvam from the same community could wield a similar influence.

The electoral alliances, especially that of the AIADMK’s, is a marked departure from what happened in 2014. The 2014 election saw both the DMK and the AIADMK fronts keeping the the BJP and the PMK away, leading to the formation of a third front. Jayalalithaa famously came up with the catchphrase: “Do you want Modi or this Lady?” While the Modi wave swept the country, in Tamil Nadu the third front faced a humiliating defeat with the AIADMK winning 37 of 39 seats.

Evidently, the AIADMK today has stitched up this alliance with the BJP and PMK hoping that the parties will help the state government survive — a scenario perhaps inconceivable under Jayalalithaa. As part of the electoral understanding, the PMK and the BJP have also promised support to the AIADMK in the bypolls to 21 Assembly constituencies — something that will decide the party’s fate as the ruling entity.

Meanwhile, the DMK continues to take it slow. Party leaders continue to hold gram sabha meetings, engaging with people and reading their pulse. Actor Kamal Haasan has announced his intention to contest all the seats while Rajinikanth has said that he will wait for Assembly elections.

With equations having changed and new players in the fray, the poll ground in Tamil Nadu is bound to throw up some surprises that may redefine the course of Tamil politics.

Kavitha Muralidharan is an independent journalist

The views expressed are personal

First Published: Mar 05, 2019 17:39 IST