For more than 15 years till 2014, western Maharashtra ruled the state with a firm grip as leaders elected from the region controlled the reins in the government. In 2014, however, things changed significantly when the BJP-Sena wrested control of Western Maharashtra’s sugar belt from the Congress-NCP by securing 7 out 12 of Lok Sabha seats. This tally was higher by one, till the time that the Swabhimani Paksha (SWP) was with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and had not turned a rival.

The outcome of the Lok Sabha polls followed by the assembly elections changed this situation dramatically.

With 12 constituencies spread across six districts, Western Maharashtra, largely dominated by Marathas, is now as much crucial for the Nationalist Congress Party-Congress alliance as it is for the BJP and Shiv Sena in the 2019 general elections. The saffron combine is hopeful of gaining from the 16 per cent reservation it has offered to the Maratha community. The current drought in Maharashtra is unlikely to affect this region electorally.

The stakes are higher for NCP and Congress as the two parties are seeking to regain their lost grip over the region. Having drawn his might from this region for more than four decades, this region is important for NCP chief Sharad Pawar as the NCP suffered a huge setback in 2014, with its strength reduced from eight MPs to four in the 2014 polls. Last month, Pawar broke his own resolve of not contesting elections, and announced that he would contest the polls from the Madha constituency in Solapur district which he represented from 2009 to 2014.

The change in Pawar’s stand comes from his desire to increase the party’s count in the Lok Sabha as well as address the compulsions of local politics as Madha constituency had many contenders opposed to one another.

Till the 1990s, the Congress had a firm grip over the region till Pawar established the NCP and cornered the allegiance of a section of the sugar barons from the region. However, the weakening of the cooperative sector over the last 10 years has partly eroded NCP’s base.

“The caste combinations in this part has favoured Congress and NCP till 2014 with both being Maratha-dominated parties. It will be interesting to see this time how Maratha votes swing post reservation,” said Chitra Lele, professor, political science, SNDT university.

While BJP leaders have exercised caution in reacting to the emerging political equations, observers feel that the new alliance between Congress-NCP and SWP can hurt the saffron combine’s chances in the cane-producing constituencies such as Kolhapur, Sangli, Mhada, Solapur, Hatkanangale and Satara.

“The Congress and NCP have been credited with the development of Western Maharashtra. We hope to regain this region,” said senior Congressman and former chief minister Prithviraj Chavan.

The BJP is resting its hopes on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma backed by major infrastructure projects and urban initiatives such Metro rail, Smart City mission and international airport at Purandar, besides highway projects at Satara and Solapur for rural voters. The party has five municipal corporations under its control.

Although the demise of NCP leader RR Patil and Congress member Patangrao Kadam has created a void for both parties in Sangli district, the excellent response to the NCP’s “halla bol” agitation and the Jan Sangharsh Yatra by the Congress, is a consoling factor, say Congress-NCP leaders.

The Shiv Sena, following its reunion with the BJP, is banking on the alliance to help retain its three seats in Maval, Shirur and Shirdi. The party is also gearing up for a strong electoral contest against SWP MP Raju Shetti on his home turf Hatkanangle.

First Published: Mar 05, 2019 14:20 IST