Do India-Pakistan conflicts affect elections?

NEW DELHI: The skirmish between India and Pakistan seems to have strengthened the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, say some political and market analysts.

The government could also gain from the shifting of the political narrative away from its economic challenges (rising unemployment, falling GDP growth, farm distress etc) to national security. Some BJP leaders also believe that India-Pakistan tension gives them an edge.

War and polls

Indian and Pakistani armies have fought thrice: in 1965, 1971 and 1999. Elections after the 1965 war were held only two years later (Congress's seat fell from 361 in 1962 to 283 in 1967) and the 1971 war happened eight months after an election that Indira Gandhi had won. Only the Kargil war (fought from May to July 1999) was immediately followed by that year's Lok Sabha elections (held in October).

Lessons from Kargil

After the victory in Kargil, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP won 182 seats in Lok Sabha. So, how much of it was the impact of Kargil? Depends. BJP's 182 seat tally was the same number as in 1998 but its overall vote share fell by 1.84% (which means it got fewer votes than in the previous elections). In politically crucial Uttar Pradesh, BJP's vote-share went down 9% and its seat tally dropped from 57 (in 1998) to 29. The party also lost seats in some other big states (like Punjab). That means the electoral outcome did not match the outpouring of emotions during the two-month war. Does it mean, Kargil had no impact? A counter view is that the BJP government during the Kargil was only a caretaker government (though war allowed Vajpayee to function as a full-fledged PM) and their retaining the previous poll tally was itself the impact of the war (182 was the best the BJP had ever performed in history till then). Others point out that it wasn't the war but Vajpayee's charisma that got the votes for BJP as the opposition then was weak and Congress was turning out to be a party of rebels.

What's for 2019?

As the politics over the strike plays out every day in PM Modi's speeches and opposition's questions about the attack, the likely impact on polls will depend on how long the issue (and nationalism) continues to garner headlines.