Markets Live: Metcash up 5pc

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Markets Live: Metcash up 5pc

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Interest rates remain on hold. The Australian dollar has jumped from US70.75 cents to US70.90 cents.

Governor Philip Lowe says: "Underlying inflation is expected to pick up over the next couple of years, with the pick-up likely to be gradual and to take a little longer than earlier expected. The central scenario is for underlying inflation to be 2 per cent this year and 2¼ per cent in 2020. Headline inflation is expected to decline in the near term because of lower petrol prices."

"The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

Just a few minutes until the RBA rates decision. The Australian dollar is down nearly 1 per cent at 70.74 US cents. Economist Stephen Koukoulas says there is a "micro chance" the target cash rate will be lowered from 1.5 per cent today, but recent rhetoric from the RBA suggests an cut is unlikely.

"The [economic] data is screaming for a rate cut," Mr Koukoulas says. "At the very least I expect them to release dovish commentary, there is just too much to ignore. They might set up the market for a rate cut in April or May".

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Speaking of government spending boosting economic activity, mining-sector engineering group Decmil Group announced this afternoon it has jointly won a tender to build the Mordialloc Freeway project in Melbourne's east. Early design works worth $25 million have been approved with the main works to be awarded at the end of this year. The Victorian state government has budgeted $375 million for the new road.

Decmil shares have traded at 87 cents for the past four sessions and are unchanged today. The three largest share holders are Denis Criddle, Commonwealth Bank, and Thorney Opportunities.

"Together with our joint venture partner McConnell Dowell, we are extremely pleased to be appointed preferred for this large scale transport project and are looking forward to delivering works," managing director Scott Criddle told the market.

We are getting an interest rates decision in about half an hour. ANZ Bank's economics team just put out a note saying the latest key economic indicators suggest annual GDP growth is slowing to 2.4 per cent, lower than the Reserve Bank of Australia's [RBA] February forecast of 2.8 per cent. They are forecasting quarterly GDP growth of 0.2 per cent.

"The main new pieces of information since our preliminary forecast last week are weaker wages, profits and inventories but stronger net exports and government finances...In tomorrow's report, the focus will be on the household indicators – consumption and income. Weak retail sales volumes point to relatively modest growth in consumer spending. While retail spending accounts for only around 30 per cent of consumption, ongoing weakness in car sales, falling house prices and tighter credit conditions will all weigh on consumer spending."

" If, as we expect, [household spending] weakness continued into the fourth quarter of 2018, the RBA may need to reassess its outlook once again. The Bank's view, that stronger growth in household income will provide an offset to falling house prices, may also be tested, given that wage income (the largest component of household income) looks to have grown only modestly in fourth quarter of 2018."

ACCC chair Rod Sims told Australian Domestic Gas Outlook Conference that "Gas suppliers have been showing some sense of contempt to the domestic market," earlier today.

"More businesses will fail [due to high gas prices], I believe they will."

Gas prices have risen to historical highs over the past three years as domestic supplies reduced, raising fears of potential gas shortages on the east coast. The federal government intervened in 2017 by threatening to put export caps on gas suppliers in order to secure more supply, forcing companies to divert gas to Australian consumers. But Mr Sims said gas prices were rising again, pushing more businesses to reconsider relocating or even closing down due to high energy costs, adding that suppliers had not been sympathetic to the issue.

Mr Sims said businesses such as polystyrene cup manufacturer Remapak, whose energy costs jumped 400 per cent in three years, and chemical maker Coogee Chemicals had already closed down because of high gas prices.

Read the full story from Cole Latimer here. Australia's listed gas producers include Origin, the Santos/GLNG joint venture, and Woodside petroluem.

Car sales through February tumbled to their lowest level in seven years as evidence grows the economy has stalled ahead of the looming federal election. The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries reported on Tuesday that 87,102 new vehicles were sold across the country last month. It was a 9.3 per cent fall on the same month in 2018.

Through the first two months of 2019, the nation's car lovers bought 169,096 new vehicles, an 8.4 per cent drop on the start of last year. The last time so few vehicles were bought in February was in 2012.

Read the full story from Shane Wright here

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Listed private equity fund Oceania Capital Partners has bought a 22.5 per cent stake in bamboo clothing maker Boody. It is spending $5.1 million to buy the shareholding directly from the founders, and will also loan Boody $1 million for three years (at 7.5 per cent interest) to fund US licensing.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia's top bankers and directors are being interviewed by the corporate regulator as it moves closer to launching a landmark case against the bank and its board alleging breaches of directors duties and continuous disclosure. Former CEO Ian Narev and chairman Catherine Livingstone are among the serving and former bank executives and directors the regulator has issued notices to interview, plans to interview or has recently questioned.

"CBA continues to engage with ASIC regarding a number of matters and responds to requests made by the regulator. We won't be commenting on any individual matter," a CBA spokesman said on Monday. Commonwealth Bank shares are $73.73, down 0.4 per cent today in step with the ASX 200 index.

The case relates to the board's response to AUSTRAC warnings in 2016 that the bank was being used for money laundering and knowingly failed to disclose the breaches or adequately respond.

The Australian Securities and Investments Commission investigations have been afoot since mid-2017 when former ASIC chairman Greg Medcraft confirmed the potential case, which would rival the James Hardie and Centro cases in creating shockwaves for boards.

Read the full story by Patrick Durkin at the Financial Review

Metcash continues to rise today, now up 5 per cent to $2.81, and WiseTech is up 2 per cent to $20.57. Sigma Healthcare is up 2.4 per cent, but the gains are pretty weak. Woolworths, Dexus, and AGL Energy are supporting the market.

Dragging today is several heavyweight stocks, with BHP down 1.1 per cent to $37.19, Macquarie Group down 1.6 per cent to $127.79, Aristocrat Leisure down 2.8 per cent to $24.50, and Tabcorp down 2.7 per cent to $4.66.

The S&P/ASX 200 is currently at 6181 points.

The S&P/ASX 200 is still under pressure - down 0.4 per cent to 6190. Volumes are thin.

Metcash is up 3.7 per cent today to $2.78 and AGL Energy is doing well, up 1.2 per cent to $21.41.

But there are a lot of stocks in red: BHP is down 1.1 per cent to $37.18 and CSL is down 0.7 per cent to $197.60.

We will soon be hosting our earning season live web event. Details can be found here.

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