A 2017 RTI report showed that ceasefire violations occur almost daily along the border, and violations and casualties caused by Pakistan have increased over time
Reports of ceasefire violations (CFVs) between India and Pakistan on the Line of Control (LoC) over the past week have indicated that tension is still simmering between the two countries.
While CFVs are, according to experts, quite common on the International Border (IB) and the LoC, this time around, major clashes have been reported with civilian casualties on both the sides.
This has prompted concerns regarding a possible escalation on the ground, and observers have stated that a miscalculation in such a scenario on any country's part could quickly spiral.
A brief history of agreements
Representatives of both countries met in 1949 in Karachi to decide upon a ceasefire line, as agreed by both countries, in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).
In a letter by the United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan, it stated that: "The ceasefire line is a complement of the suspension of hostilities..."
The meeting between the military chiefs of both countries agreed upon a ceasefire line. That line, however, has been violated and kept on changing over the course of decades, with skirmishes, battles and full-fledged wars to show. In 1972, after the 1971 war with Pakistan, both countries signed the Simla Agreement.
"The Simla Agreement," according to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), "contains a set of guiding principles, mutually agreed to by India and Pakistan... These emphasise: respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty; non-interference in each other’s internal affairs; respect for each others unity, political independence; sovereign equality; and abjuring hostile propaganda."
In 2003, India and Pakistan agreed to a formal ceasefire agreement and started "confidence-building measures" along the LoC and IB. According to a report by the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), increasing trade and contact between both the sides started in 2005, and cross-LoC trade in both sectors of Kashmir started in October 2008, only a month before the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks.
But if these agreements are in place, why do CFVs occur?
Ceasefire violations are essentially cross-border shelling and firing along the LoC, IB and the Actual Ground Position Line (AGPL).
India has maintained that Pakistan has been indulging in violations for which the Indian side gives a response, but never violates ceasefire first.
A paper by Carnegie India states that despite the 2003 agreement, local military factors are largely to be blamed for the constant CFVs. According to a study by Indian scholar Happymoon Jacob, the violations are not planned by senior military commands or the government, but occur due to local concerns.
For instance, according to the study, setting up of new bunkers along the border or maintenance work of old bunkers are considered "opportunities for firing". Other infrastructural concerns, the study suggests, are also taken into consideration. But CFVs, over decades before the 2003 agreement— most notably before and during the Kargil War— and after 2013, have been used as a cover for infiltrators, according to military experts. The strategy is to divert the Army's attention through shelling and cross-border firing to enable terrorists to cross over.
According to the Carnegie paper, women in Pakistan have protested against the practice, since it destroys their homes and livelihood. Moreover, the nearest human population in India lives about five miles away from the border, but in Pakistan, people reportedly live along the border, which enables more damage to their civilian population during the shelling.
A 2017 RTI report showed that ceasefire violations occur almost daily along the border, and violations and casualties caused by them have increased over time.
Have CFVs increased in the recent past?
Yes, and, according to reports, considerably so. In 2018, over 2,936 CFVs were reported, which was highest in the last 15 years with an average of eight violations daily. Over 61 people were killed and 250 injured during the violations.
These violations were over four times the number of 2017, while by August 2017, the violations that year were as much as for entire 2016. This shows that CFVs have been increasing rapidly.
The violations had decreased considerably after the 2003 agreement, reportedly after Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf turned the tap off on terrorist activities along the border. They have, however, spiked again in recent months.
Does this spike, then, signal escalation?
Not necessarily. For one thing, according to experts, the escalation after the Pulwama terror attack was done through air strikes, and although escalations might occur during CFVs, there are means through which both the sides resolve the issue.
There is, also, a special military hotline established between Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMO) of both sides to avoid potential volatile situations from flaring into more serious battles.
Diplomatic channels are also used, and high commissioners and deputy high commissioners are called in to register protest over the violations.
