Things have changed within a month in Maharashtra politics.

About a month ago, the saffron combine looked sceptical about its prospects in the state that has the second largest number of Lok Sabha seats after Uttar Pradesh. The alliance was not formalised and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seemed defensive. On the other hand, the Congress-NCP looked set to forge a grand alliance of Opposition parties with Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar, a veteran of many battles, guiding their efforts.

One month later, things are looking different. The BJP has quickly sealed its alliance with the Shiv Sena. The Devendra Fadnavis government is taking decisions aimed at different voters. It has scrapped the land acquisition process for the Nanar refinery project, which was being opposed by the local population. It has announced some sops for the Dhangar (shepherd) community, which is seeking inclusion in the Scheduled Tribes category for reservation. The BJP’s post-Pulwama terror attack narrative has further improved the position of the alliance. There is minor bickering as smaller allies such as Ramdas Athawale, Mahadev Jankar and Vinayak Mete are unhappy they were nowhere in the picture as BJP-Sena finalised seat-sharing for the Lok Sabha election. However, they do not have any option but to stick to the saffron combine, which is looking better placed in Maharashtra now.

In contrast, the Congress-NCP seem to be struggling to put together their grand alliance together. The two parties have not been able to finalise the alliance yet as the dispute over Ahmednagar seat is unresolved. The Congress wants the seat for Sujay, son of leader of Opposition in the Assembly, Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil. But the NCP, which got the constituency in their seat-sharing pact in 2004, does not want to part with it. Meanwhile, Sujay is in touch with the BJP, which currently holds the Ahmednagar seat. The Ahmednagar MP Dilip Gandhi is currently facing some opposition within the party for his renomination. If the NCP lets go of Ahmednagar, it would ask for the Aurangabad seat, which the Congress is unwilling to part with. Further, attempts by the two parties to get smaller allies on board to prevent division of their votes have not evoked a positive response. Farmers’ leader Raju Shetti has not joined the coalition yet. His Swabhimani Paksha is demanding four seats though it currently has one seat in the Lok Sabha. Shetti is not sure the Congress-NCP will fully help him retain his Hatkanangale seat, which he won in 2014 with the help of the BJP-Sena.

Though the Congress is trying hard to get him on board, Dalit leader Prakash Ambedkar is not keen to join the Opposition’s grand alliance for certain reasons. Vasai legislator Hitendra Thakur’s Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, which had won the Palghar Lok Sabha seat with the help of Congress-NCP in 2009, too has not committed to anything yet. Thakur expects the Opposition coalition to not field any candidate in the seat without his party joining the alliance. In the absence of decisions by these parties the Congress-NCP are unable to take a call on four to six Lok Sabha seats they are willing to leave for smaller allies. The only ally they have now is the Peasants and Workers Party, which has influence in Raigad and some pockets in western Maharashtra. It is becoming clear the Opposition parties are putting their interests ahead of their earlier plan to unite against the BJP.

So what is likely to be the outcome of the clash between two coalitions in Maharashtra? BJP insiders say they will win around 35 seats and may even go up to 40 if the sentiments over the India-Pakistan conflict work to their advantage. The assessment in the Congress-NCP camp is that they can win 15 to 20 seats and BJP-Sena will win around 30. In 2014, the BJP-Sena alliance won 42 seats while the Congress-NCP alliance could bag only six seats.

What happens in Maharashtra’s 48 seats will also have an impact on the BJP’s plan to return to power in the 2019 polls and the Congress’ move to prevent it from doing so. As of now, the saffron combine seems to have an upper hand.

First Published: Mar 05, 2019 00:46 IST