The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Loading News
The following commentary does not necessarily reflect the views of AgWeb or Farm Journal Media. The opinions expressed below are the author's own.
Commodity markets and the information that moves them is constantly changing making it almost impossible to keep up. The Blue Line Express is a valuable resource written by, Blue Line Futures, for hedgers and traders that provides the latest and most pertinent news and technical analysis. Take one stop on the Blue Line Express for daily fundamental and technical analysis so you can make better informed decisions.
Corn
Last Week’s Close: May corn future finished Friday’s session up 2 cents, 6 ¼ cents off of the intraday lows. For the week, futures were down 12 ½ cents and traded in a range of 21 ¾ cents.
Quick Take: Until last week the market had been trading in a range for the previous three weeks. First notice day coupled with forced liquidation likely played a big role in the technical breakdown. Prices came just shy of their contract lows from September and started to reverse higher. The fact that futures were able to close so well off of the lows with good volume was extremely encouraging for the bull camp but follow through in the first half of the week will be imperative. Check out our Grain Express tomorrow morning for this week’s full technical breakdown.
Soybeans
Last Week’s Close: May soybean futures finished Friday’s session up ½ of a cent, 10 cents off of the intraday lows. For the week, futures were down 12 ¾ cents and trade in a 24-cent range.
Quick Take: Soybeans saw a nice recovery Friday afternoon on hopes that there would be some sort of progress on trade over the weekend. Late Friday afternoon President Trump tweeted: “I have asked China to immediately remove all Tariffs on our agricultural products (including beef, pork, etc.) based on the fact that we are moving along nicely with Trade discussions and I did not increase their second traunch of Tariffs to 25% on March 1st. This is very important for our great farmers - and me!”. This wasn’t the good news that many had hoped for but none the less should be friendly to prices. Check out our Grain Express tomorrow morning for this week’s full technical breakdown.
Wheat
Last Week’s Close: May wheat futures finished Friday’s session down 2 ¼ cents, 10 cents off of the intraday lows. For the week, futures were down 32 ¾ cents and traded in a range of 47 ¾ cents.
Quick Take: All of the cliché sayings like don’t catch a falling knife, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, the bottom is a process and not a point, etc were the sayings bulls needed to keep in mind last week. We stuck our necks out and tried buying against technical support with clients but were able to manage risk appropriately. As mentioned in one of last week’s reports: “The great thing about these markets is that when prices aren’t doing what you think/want them to do, you can get out.” Check out our Grain Express tomorrow morning for this week’s full technical breakdown.
Live Cattle
Last Week’s Close: April live cattle future finished Friday’s session down .225, trimming gains for the week to .625. For the week, futures traded in a range of 1.85.
Quick Take: Hopes of higher cash week fell short in our opinion, with the bulk coming in around 128. On the positive side of things, President Trump had this tweet late Friday afternoon: “I have asked China to immediately remove all Tariffs on our agricultural products (including beef, pork, etc.) based on the fact that we are moving along nicely with Trade discussions and I did not increase their second traunch of Tariffs to 25% on March 1st. This is very important for our great farmers - and me!”. We have been playing both sides of the market recently and will continue to do so, with tempered expectations and short time frame trades.
Feeder Cattle
Last Week’s Close: April feeder cattle finished Friday’s session down 1.075, putting prices in negative territory by .35. For the week, futures traded in a range of 2.625.
QuickTake: The market was looking extremely constructive last week but the bulls failed to stage a breakout above the December highs of 147.825. The pullback on Thursday and Friday now bring prices back towards the low end of the range, an area we don’t mind looking long against.
Lean Hogs
Last Week’s Close: April lean hogs finished Friday’s session up .625, extending gains for the week to .925. For the week, futures traded in a range of 4.825.
Quick Take: In one of last week’s reports we labeled lean hogs as ‘untradable” from a swing traders’ perspective, looking at time frames from 1-3 days. There are plenty of intraday opportunities, but the risks have been high for holding positions overnight. The market needs to see fewer gap opens in order to regain stability and find direction. With volatility high and option premiums inflated, perhaps that new direction will be sideways.
Sign up for a FREE trial of 1 or all 4 of our daily commodity reports!
-Grains
-Livestock
-Currencies
-S&P, Oil, Gold
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Loading News