Israel Attorney General Expected to Say Whether He Plans to Indict Netanyahu

(Bloomberg) -- Benjamin Netanyahu braced Thursday for an expected decision on whether the attorney general intends to put him on trial, following a two-year corruption investigation that has polarized the country and could speed the end of the Israeli prime minister’s political career.

Netanyahu landed in Israel before dawn, cutting short an official visit to Moscow. Should Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit decide he plans to charge the prime minister in any of the three cases in which he’s embroiled, Netanyahu would first be entitled to a hearing to present his side of the story in an attempt to change Mandelblit’s mind, a process that could take many months.

No sitting Israeli leader has ever been indicted, and Netanyahu has denied wrongdoing. He’s said he won’t step down unless convicted, and legally he doesn’t have to. But if the nation’s top prosecutor believes the case is strong enough to file charges, that may erode Netanyahu’s political support to the point where he’s either voted out in April 9 elections or concludes he has no choice but to resign.

Mandelblit is set to announce whether he thinks Netanyahu broke the law in accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars of gifts from wealthy benefactors and acting illicitly to win better press coverage through proposed legislation and regulatory benefits. The attorney general’s decision is sure to figure centrally in what is shaping up as a closely fought election campaign.

‘House of Cards’

On Wednesday, Netanyahu again dismissed bribery allegations against him and said “this house of cards will soon collapse.” The prime minister is seeking a fifth term, and if he hangs on he could become his country’s longest-serving leader later this year.

Netanyahu has argued for the past two years that he’s the victim of a political witch hunt by the media, left-wingers and police investigators who’ve already recommended he stand trial for bribery in all three cases. With elections six weeks away, even small shifts in voter sentiment could prove crucial.

Before Mandelblit published his findings, polls showed Netanyahu’s Likud maintaining its strength and able to put together Israel’s next government with current partners. But they’ve also indicated that a decision to charge the prime minister could potentially swing the balance of power in a tight race against the centrist Blue & White bloc headed by former military chief of staff Benny Gantz and ex-Finance Minister Yair Lapid.

A Times of Israel poll released overnight showed a draft indictment would cost Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party four projected parliamentary seats and, more importantly, its ability to form a coalition. Support for Blue & White would surge to 44 of parliament’s 120 seats from 36 in previous polls, the survey showed.

Over a quarter of those planning to vote for Likud said they won’t do so if Mandelblit releases a draft indictment, and its parliamentary representation would fall to 25 seats from 29 projected previously, the poll showed. The online survey of 708 likely voters had a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

Cigars and Champagne

The investigation began in 2016 and expanded from gifts of cigars and champagne to regulatory decisions that reshaped the country’s communications landscape. Testimony from three former close aides was crucial in building the case against the prime minister.

The expected announcement from Mandelblit, who was appointed to the post by Netanyahu, comes a year after police recommended charging the prime minister with bribery, fraud and breach of trust in the first case, in which he took about 1 million shekels ($277,000) worth of items such as cigars and champagne from wealthy friends including Hollywood producer Arnon Milchan and Australian businessman James Packer. Netanyahu says these were gifts from friends, and has denied giving any favors in exchange.

In another case, Netanyahu is suspected of supporting regulatory reforms that benefited Bezeq Israeli Telecommunication Corp. -- controlled at the time by Netanyahu’s friend, Shaul Elovitch -- in exchange for favorable coverage in a news site under Elovitch’s control.

In the third case, he met with the publisher of a major Israeli newspaper to discuss passing legislation that would weaken another daily in exchange for more favorable coverage. The plan never came to fruition, and the bill never made it to a final vote in parliament.

Netanyahu had moved up the balloting from November, in part to forestall Mandeblit’s decision. He argued that announcing an indictment before the election -- and before his hearing could be completed -- would prejudice voters. Others said voters deserved to have as much information as possible before the election, and argued that it was Netanyahu’s own decision to advance the vote that dictated Mandelblit’s timing.

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