U.S. auto sales projected to fall again in Feb.

U.S. auto sales are forecast to drop slightly for a second straight month in February as the industry struggles to gain traction in the new year.

Estimates released by three leading forecasters see declines of as much as 2.6 percent from February 2018 levels, while Cox Automotive projects a 0.7 percent gain.

Forecasts of the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate range from 16.6 million to Cox's 17.1 million. Those would be in line with analysts' expectations for the year, which is forecast to come in below 17 million for the first time since 2014.

A February drop would mark the second time in three years that the industry has started the year with two consecutive monthly declines. The last time that happened, in 2017, the industry went on to record its only annual sales setback since the Great Recession. Automakers are scheduled to report their February results on Friday.

Among those anticipating declines, TrueCar's ALG estimates a 2.6 percent slide (and a SAAR of 16.6 million), Edmunds projects a 2.2 percent drop (16.7 million SAAR), and J.D. Power/LMC Automotive sees a 0.9 percent decrease (16.8 million SAAR).

January sales slipped 1 percent after the industry eked out a 0.6 percent advance to 17.3 million sales for 2018. At the start of last year, few analysts expected annual sales to top 17 million.

Analysts show no sign of consensus on how the extremely cold weather in January played out in February's results. Cox Automotive says last month's polar vortex, which sent temperatures plunging into sub-double-digits in parts of the Upper Midwest, may have boosted February traffic.

"Some lift in February sales is expected as delayed vehicle buyers complete their purchases," Cox senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said in a statement. He cautioned that if February comes in weaker than expected, "we may be in the early stages of the vehicle market's shift to a much slower pace."

Edmunds said its forecast of slower sales indicates there was little pent-up demand following the extreme cold and a 35-day partial U.S. government shutdown.

"It's easy to point fingers at anomalous factors like the polar vortex as the reason for a sales slowdown, but the numbers don't show that's the case," Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds' manager of industry analysis, said in a statement.

Edmunds also said the Presidents Day weekend, which marked the first big sales "event" of the year, did not give a significant boost to the rest of February. "Although the drop-off in sales is rather subtle year over year, February is shaping up to be a good barometer of the gradual sales decline we expect through 2019," Acevedo said. "We're really starting to see a slump in retail demand that stems from the growing costs of new-car purchases."

J.D. Power's projections, which are based on the first 14 selling days of the month, include a 2.4 percent decline in retail sales, those delivered to individual customers. There were 24 selling days last month, the same as in February 2018.

Rising interest rates and transaction prices are the main factors weighing on new-vehicle sales, Edmunds said. Cox, too, said it expects affordability could affect the market going forward, as well as tariffs, increased off-lease volume, and shrinking demand for cars vs. light trucks.

ALG forecasts the average transaction price for new light vehicles in February was up 3 percent to $34,565, while incentives as a percentage of ATP were down 3.7 percent.

J.D. Power estimates ATPs are on pace to hit $33,267 in February, marking an all-time high for the month. At the same time, incentive spending is expected to be down on an annual basis for an eighth straight month at $3,721 per unit, a drop of $161 from February 2018.

Among automakers, Edmunds is estimating a 5.8 percent decline at General Motors, which does not release monthly results. Edmunds also sees a slip of 0.8 percent for Ford Motor Co., and a 1.9 percent decrease for Fiat Chrysler Automobiles. It's expecting declines of 3 percent for Toyota Motor, 1.4 percent for American Honda and 13 percent for Nissan Group.

Volkswagen/Audi's sales are projected to drop 3.3 percent, while Hyundai/Kia is estimated to be the lone increase at just 0.6 percent, said Edmunds.

Cox estimates GM's sales dipped 1.3 percent in February, while Ford's fell 1.7 percent and FCA's rose 2.5 percent. It sees declines of 1.2 percent at Toyota, 0.5 percent at Honda, 6.1 percent for Nissan and 1.1 percent for Volkswagen. Cox forecasts Hyundai/Kia's sales grew 3.7 percent.

J.D. Power's Thomas King, senior vice president of data and analytics, noted that January and February are among the weakest months of the year in terms of retail sales volume. He said that the two months, which command more than 16 percent of calendar space, comprised just 13.5 percent of last year's annual retail sales total.