Nigerian President Buhari Stretches Lead in Election Count

Feb 26 2019, 1:47 PMFeb 26 2019, 2:37 PMFebruary 26 2019, 1:47 PMFebruary 26 2019, 2:37 PM

(Bloomberg) -- Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari strengthened his bid for a new four-year term in office after latest results gave him a wide lead in general elections marred by delays, technical glitches and at least 39 deaths.

After results from 17 of Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, Buhari led his main challenger, Atiku Abubakar, by a 52 percent to 44 percent margin, according to Bloomberg calculations from data announced Tuesday by the Independent National Electoral Commission in the capital, Abuja. The final tally is expected by Wednesday. The opposition People’s Democratic Party called the count “manipulated” and threatened to challenge it.

“By now we know who is leading and likely to win the elections,” said Idayat Hassan, director at the Centre for Democratic and Development in Abuja. “What we should be focused on at this point is how to heal the country, how to merge the widening divide that this election has actually brought.”

Naira bond yields have fallen this week on relief that the election in Africa’s biggest oil producer was generally peaceful, said Kevin Daly, a money manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments in London, which oversees $735 billion of assets, including Nigerian debt.

The presidential and parliamentary elections in Africa’s most populous nation was the continent’s biggest-ever democratic exercise. Almost 73 million people were eligible to vote Saturday in what analysts thought would be a tight race mainly between Buhari, a 76-year-old ex-general who campaigned on an anti-graft platform, and Abubakar, a 72-year-old businessman and former vice president.

Read QuickTake on why so much is at stake in the election

At least 39 people were killed in election-related violence, according to the Situation Room, a group of civic organizations monitoring the vote. The inspector general of police, who didn’t give a death toll, said 128 people were arrested for offenses such as homicide and snatching of ballot boxes.

“Serious operational shortcomings placed undue burden on voters,” the European Union observer mission said, while the African Union called the vote “largely peaceful and orderly.”

The election pitted two men of contrasting economic views, with Buhari, who favors a strong government role, against Abubakar, a pro-market multimillionaire who has said he would float the national currency and sell stakes in the state oil company.

Market Impact

Wall Street banks such as Citigroup Inc. had said Nigerian equities and bonds will probably rally if Abubakar wins. The stock market was down 0.7 percent at the 2:30 p.m. close in Lagos.

“Investors’ preference would have been for an Atiku win considering that he is perceived to be more market friendly and also seen as having the potential to deliver a stronger economy,” said Olabisi Ayodeji, an analyst at Exotix Capital in Lagos, the commercial capital. “The results announced so far are pretty much what will be in the end.”

Whoever wins will have to deal with widespread violence in the northeast where insurgents, some now affiliated to Islamic State, have been fighting to impose their version of shariah law. The conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives and forced more than 2.5 million people in the Lake Chad region to flee their homes. Clashes between farmers and herders over grazing land led to around 2,000 deaths last year, according to Amnesty International.

Deepening Poverty

Nigeria now has more extremely poor people, 87 million, than any other nation, according to the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank. The United Nations expects its population to double to 410 million by 2050, overtaking everywhere bar India and China.

To win, a candidate must get the majority of votes and at least 25 percent in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states and Federal Capital Territory. Otherwise, there’ll be a second round.

While Buhari was likely to win in the north, Abubakar was expected to dominate in the south-east and south-south, two of Nigeria’s six so-called geopolitical zones, where Buhari has long been unpopular. The south-west, which includes the commercial capital of Lagos, and the north-central zones were potential swing areas.

Both Buhari and Abubakar are northern Muslims in a country split roughly evenly between a Christian south and Islamic north.

Buhari ruled the country briefly as a dictator in the 1980s and morphed into a civilian politician who won on his fourth try for the presidency in 2015. Abubakar, who was vice president between 1999 and 2007, has business interests ranging from oil and gas services to food manufacturing and a private university.

Buhari and his APC have faced sharp criticism for their handling of the economy. The president imposed capital controls as the naira currency came under pressure amid plunging revenue from oil, the country’s main export, and foreign investors fled. After a contraction in 2016, the economy expanded 1.9 percent last year, the fastest since Buhari’s election.

Abubakar portrays himself as someone who knows how to get things done and his pro-market policies have won some favor among investors. While he’s faced allegations of corruption, he denies any wrongdoing and has never been indicted at home or abroad.