"More people are working, they're making more money, their taxes are lower and their confidence remains high. The biggest priority is to ensure that our economy continues to grow and to avoid self-inflicted wounds. It's time for artificial problems like trade wars and shutdowns to end, and to focus on prosperity not politics," said NRF CEO & President Matthew Shay.

Retail sales for 2018 increased about 4.6%, so the estimate of between 3.8% and 4.4% is slightly lower than last year, but would put merchants and brands at more than $3.8 trillion in sales - not a small number at all.

And, online sales are expected to increase by higher rates than traditional retail. The forecast predicts that ecommerce will increase by at least 10% YoY, coming in at about $751 billion for this year.

"Consumers are in better shape than any time in the last few years. Most important for the year ahead will be the ongoing strength in the job market, which will support the consumer income and spending that are both key drivers of the economy," said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. "The bottom line is that the economy is in a good place despite the ups and downs of the stock market and other uncertainties. Growth remains solid."

Forecast: Look for US retail to increase 4% this year

Retailers may not break huge sales goals this year, but 2019 should be a solid year for retail. That's the word from the National Retail Federation's 2019 retail forecast. According to their estimates, a solid economy should have retail sales increasing between 3% and 4% for the year.