Over 50% chance of normal monsoon this year: Skymet

NEW DELHI: There’s more than a 50% chance the monsoon will be normal this year, private weather agency Skymet said in a “preliminary” monsoon forecast on Monday, the first by any agency this year. Skymet said early indications were the 2019 southwest monsoon would be in the lower end of the normal range while nearly ruling out a drought year or excess rainfall.

The monsoon is said to be normal if rainfall across India is 96 to 104% of the long period average. Less than 90% monsoon rainfall is popularly termed as a drought year. “The preliminary forecast is aimed at providing an early indication of monsoon rainfall so as to give lead time to agencies involved in preparing for the season,” said G P Sharma, lead meteorologist at Skymet.


While keeping the probability of a normal monsoon at more than 50%, the forecast warned that there was also a significant chance of the June-September rainfall ending in the below-normal range (90 to 96%). Skymet will release a full forecast in late March or early April, with separate predictions for India’s four regions as well as month-wise rainfall breakup.

The southwest monsoon from June to September provides nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall and is crucial for the rural economy and the summer crop. The indication of normal rains should bring cheer to the sector. While Skymet said the margin of error of its forecast was the usual 5% on either side, such early predictions usually suffer from higher uncertainty because of what meteorologists call the “spring predictability barrier”.

Due to this barrier, weather models have a harder time making accurate forecasts about the postspring season because of changing variables during the spring. G P Sharma, lead meteorologist at Skymet, however said, January-February data had worked well for monsoon forecasts in the past.