The inclusion of the PMK, the DMDK, the BJP and a few others in the alliance led by the ruling AIADMK could brighten the prospects of the coalition in the northern districts and parts of western and southern districts of the State, if one were to go by the performance of these parties in the 2016 Assembly election.
The talks among the parties seem to have reached a finality, and the PMK, the DMDK, the BJP, the Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar) and the Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi (IJK) are said to be part of the proposed alliance.
It is in this context that a study, based on the data of vote share secured by the parties in 234 Assembly seats, has been carried out, recalibrating the data to reflect the possible tally for the 39 Lok Sabha constituencies. For reasons of convenience, the figures of the DMDK and the BJP include those of the TMC (Moopanar) and the IJK. While the DMDK had contested the last Assembly polls as part of the People’s Welfare Front comprising the two Left parties, MDMK, VCK and TMC(M), the IJK had allied with the BJP.
In 14 parliamentary seats in northern districts, the potential allies of the AIADMK could contribute, on an average, 14.2% of votes to the front, with the PMK accounting for the lion’s share. From Tiruvallur to Kancheepuram, Vellore to Tiruvannamalai and Villupuram to Cuddalore, the presence of the PMK can make a significant difference to the front, going by the party’s showing three years ago. In two of the Chennai constituencies - South and Central, the BJP’s influence is more perceptible than others. As for the DMDK, its strength in Cuddalore would supplement that of the alliance, even though the PMK is stronger there.
Zone of influence
Even though the PMK’s MP and former Union Minister Anbumani Ramadoss lost in the Pennagaram Assembly constituency in 2016, the party’s performance is best in Dharmapuri region, with Pennagaram and five other constituencies forming part of the Dharmapuri parliamentary constituency. The PMK had then secured nearly 2.86 lakh votes. In the neighbouring area of Krishnagiri, the party did not do that well. Still, it was no pushover.
Other constituencies where it put up an impressive show in 2016 included Arakkonam, Kancheepuram, Arani, Villupuram, Cuddalore and Chidambaram, where it got votes ranging from 1.18 lakh to 1.87 lakh. The PMK’s zone of influence extended up to Salem in the west, where it had a base of 1.66 lakh votes, beyond which it was an insignificant player.
BJP’s bastion
As for the BJP, Kanniyakumari remains its bastion with about 2.10 lakh votes. Next is Coimbatore, where the party could yield a minimum of about 1.16 lakh votes. The BJP has limited base in constituencies of Nagapattinam, Tenkasi, Tirunelveli and Ramanathapuram, where it can boast of having over 40,000 votes.
The DMDK, which had contested in less number of seats (106), still demonstrated that it was a force to reckon with in constituencies like Cuddalore (93,300 votes), Villupuram (about 89,000 votes), Mayiladuthurai (around 65,860 votes), Karur (59,800 votes), Virudhunagar (48,100 votes) and Thoothukudi (41,690 votes).
In the event of the proposed alliance fructifying, the AIADMK, which has been hit by the absence of a charismatic leader of the stature of former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa and the presence of a rebel in T.T.V. Dhinakaran, has to rely on its own strength and resources to ensure victory for the coalition in the central region and most parts of the western and southern districts.