People performing expert cognitive labour will become significantly more productive.
Dan Finnigan
Despite talk of job automation in practically every industry, the question no longer seems to be whether jobs will be automated, but rather which jobs are at greatest risk and how concerned we should be about the changes. But is this anxiety justified?
Are you worried about losing your job to a robot?
Let's be clear: People are afraid. According to the Job Seeker Nation Report released by Jobvite in 2016, 55 percent of job seekers are at least a little worried about job automation. But it turns out that those actually in charge of hiring aren't there yet. Jobvite's Recruiter Nation Report also says that just 10 percent of recruiters anticipate automating some jobs in the next two to three years (compared to 25 percent in 2015).
We are entering the second wave of the jobs automation process, Automation 2.0. We have seen predictable, repeatable, physical tasks (think forklifts on the factory floor or assembly-line work) be automated. But now, just as the recruiters predicted, automating the next wave of cognitive work will prove much more difficult, slowing the process until we figure out how to do it.
We do not need to fear this new wave, though because humans occupy a space that machines probably never will. They manage each other, they take responsibility for actions, and they understand the dynamics of working relationships in a way that an algorithm simply cannot (at least for the foreseeable future). Automation 2.0 will undoubtedly change the labour market, but in a way we can adapt to.
See also: How Will AI Change Work? Here Are 5 Schools of Thought
The Realities of Automation 2.0
We are never going to automate every job out of existence. Human beings are relentless in their capacity to invent new ways to serve others, so we will always have new work. A recent McKinsey study shows that there really are tasks that only humans can do for the foreseeable future, particularly in areas such as education and health care. Among them are managing others, applying expertise-such as knowledge of the stock market or a knack for creative messaging-and interacting with key stakeholders. There are still aspects of many jobs that cannot be automated away, so let us all take a deep breath for a second.
It is important to recognise that we will inevitably automate parts of almost every job. We have seen it happen already across manufacturing, food service, and retail operations. As we move into the cognitive work arena, the idea will be the same: We will see automation of many predictable, scalable, and repeatable tasks.
But while computers can do the rote analysis, even they have limits. Instead of physical work, these tasks will be related to things such as data collection or the processing of algorithms. My own doctor does not talk to me unless he is sitting in front of a terminal. Much of what he used to do as a rote part of seeing patients is now automated. In education, many of the daily tasks that have beleaguered teachers can now be given to computers. In fact, the entire university education can be delivered online. Does that mean we don't need doctors or teachers? No.
As this next wave of automation transpires, it will unveil the real value of human beings at work. Humans have an understanding of the dynamic nuances inherent in working relationships and the ability to respond and adapt to those nuances; machines probably will not get there. This is where strong managers and mentors excel. Humans can provide judgement and hold each other accountable for their actions. This is why a single fatal accident with a self-driving car reminds us that machines, for all their excellent attributes, cannot be blamed or accept responsibility.
While fears about Automation 2.0 are not as founded as we thought, the movement will impact the labour market significantly. As technology enables experts to offload rote tasks and analysis, they gain time to tend to the other work that cannot be automated-the work that makes them uniquely necessary. In that sense, people performing expert cognitive labour will become significantly more productive.
It is already happening. We are seeing doctors who can effectively oversee the treatment of hundreds of patients because they have computers. We are seeing lawyers who can effectively handle hundreds of clients because they have technology to assist in research and analysis.
But as people in these professions leverage technology to apply their expertise, we will likely won't need as many of them. And those who succeed will have to be people who are extremely well prepared to function in a technological and automated work environment.
In fact, they might not even need to go as far in their expert education to perform these jobs. With the right technology skills, and with automation in play, we are learning that physician assistants and paralegals can do the same work with less investment.
These changes are not negative but people concerned about how the automation of cognitive work might impact their careers can't stick their heads in the sand. If we can continue to innovate and accept technology in the labor market and better incorporate technological skills into our education system, then we will continue to create the kinds of lucrative opportunities that only humans can effectively seize.
(This article was first published on www.hbrascend.org. HBR Ascend is a digital learning companion for graduating students and early career professionals)
