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No. 2 Duke erases 23 point deficit in 10 minutes to stun No. 16 Louisville

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“I don’t coach losers.”

“I coach winners.”

That is was Mike Krzyzewski told his team in the huddle as they were in the middle of getting trucked on Tuesday night in Louisville, and whether it was a motivational ploy, a threat or simply a septuagenarian Army grad letting off some steam, it worked.

Cam Reddish scored 16 of his 22 points in the final 9:07 and Zion Williamson scored 13 of his 27 points in final 7:40 as No. 2 Duke erased a 23 point second half deficit in the blink of an eye to stun No. 16 Louisville, 71-69, in the Yum! Center on Tuesday night. Duke outscored Louisville 35-10 over the final 9:07 as the Cardinals turned the ball over nine times and shot just 2-for-11 from the floor. It was the biggest second half comeback of Mike Krzyzewski’s career.

Williamson, who finished with 27 points and 12 boards, played the final 12 minutes of the game with four fouls. Reddish, who missed his first five threes of the game, hit four during the run and capped off the game with a pair of free throws with 14.9 seconds left for the win.

The game did not end without controversy, however.

On Duke’s final possession of the game, Reddish came off of a dribble handoff, drove through three defenders and barreled into Ryan McMahon in what was the easy charge call of the season. The problem? McMahon’s left heel was on the charge circle, meaning that the officials were able to go to the monitor, overturn the call and give Reddish a pair of free throws.

Ball-game.

The question here becomes just how much credit we should give Duke for making the comeback and how much blame we need to throw at Louisville for choking away that lead, and the answer is simple: It’s all of the above.

Duke finally started playing hard midway through the second half. For the first 30 minutes of that game, it looked like they were playing in quicksand, which is something that this team has had a tendency to do. When their shots aren’t going down and they’re not getting out in transition, they can get into a funk. It happened in the first half against Boston College. It happened in the first half against Georgia Tech. It happened in the second half when they lost to Syracuse. Louisville is a Pack-Line team, they forced Duke out of the paint and into jumpers and the Blue Devils weren’t making them. At the other end of the floor, they were carving Duke up with their high ball-screen offense.

It was perfection.

Until Duke brought Jordan Goldwire on the floor and allowed him and Tre Jones to get out and pressure Louisville’s guards. One turnover led to another, which led to some serious #lemonbooty, and once Duke sniffed out the fact that no one on Louisville actually wanted to have the ball in their hands, it was over.

Duke had to make the plays — and, in Reddish’s case, the shots — that it did, and they deserve credit for that, but Louisville gifted them that win on a platter.

And at the end of the day, Coach K was right.

He coaches winners.

Tuesday’s Things To Know: Duke’s incredible comeback; LSU stuns Kentucky; Penn State upsets Michigan

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It was a wild night full of action in college hoops on Tuesday as the schedule had four matchups between ranked teams. The results didn’t disappoint as we saw a memorable comeback from a top-five team while another top-five team lost at home at the buzzer. And that doesn’t even include two more matchups and an additional top-ten team getting picked off by an unranked conference opponent.

No. 2 Duke earns incredible comeback win over No. 16 Louisville

In the largest second-half comeback win of Coach K’s storied career at Duke, the Blue Devils overcame a 23-point halftime deficit to beat Louisville for an ACC win. Left for dead, Duke started to ramp things up on the defensive end as full-court pressure led to Louisville turnovers and easy buckets.

Freshman Zion Williamson had 27 points, 12 rebounds and three steals while Cam Reddish made multiple huge shots late to step up with 22 points. This win will give Duke a lot of confidence in the national title journey as they were able to overcome a significant disadvantage to come back and win against a top-20 team on the road.

No. 19 LSU stuns No. 5 Kentucky with buzzer-beating win at Rupp

Earlier in the night, the SEC saw a great comeback road win of their own as the Tigers clawed back to take down Kentucky. Even though LSU’s stars struggled for much of this game, the Tigers put together a gritty performance to help them secure their biggest win of this season.

Although LSU isn’t getting a lot of love from national college hoops pundits, they’re only a game back of Tennessee in the SEC standings as the Tigers are unbeaten on the road in conference play. Also 6-2 against both Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 2 teams, LSU is looking like one of the most intriguing teams in the country down the stretch thanks to a young and emerging lineup.

Penn State upsets No. 6 Michigan as John Beilein gets tossed

In the most shocking upset of the night, Penn State — 1-11 in the Big Ten entering this one — pulled off a win over the Wolverines. Building a double-digit first-half lead against a subpar Michigan team, the Nittany Lions were aided when Wolverines head coach John Beilein received a double technical right before halftime and was ejected.

The moment allowed for a 13-point lead to grow into a 16-point lead out of halftime for Penn State as Michigan could never overcome despite a late charge. The Nittany Lions had a double-double from Lamar Stevens (26 points, 12 rebounds) to earn their best win of the campaign. The loss puts Michigan tied with Michigan State atop the Big Ten standings as the Wolverines need to figure things out before their Big Ten schedule gets much tougher from here.

No. 11 Michigan State, No. 24 Maryland beat ranked Big Ten foes

It’s tough to match the excitement of the first three matchups on this list, but the Spartans and Terps both earned notable wins in the Big Ten over fellow top-25 opponents.

To start the night, Maryland clamped down on defense and received a balanced effort with five double-figure scorers to outlast No. 12 Purdue. While the Boilermakers had the edge with an eight-point halftime lead, that was quickly erased when Purdue was held to 18 second-half points as everybody outside of Carsen Edwards (24 points). Impressive comeback for Maryland in this one as freshmen like Jalen Smith (16 points) and Eric Ayala (15 points) were huge difference-makers down the stretch.

In the second Big Ten ranked matchup, the Spartans pulled even with in-state rival Michigan for the Big Ten lead with a good road win at No. 20 Wisconsin. In a matchup of Big Ten Player of the Year candidate, Spartans point guard Cassius Winston (23 points, six assists, five rebounds) got the best of Badgers forward Ethan Happ (20 points, 12 rebounds). Happ struggled with six turnovers and 0-for-6 free-throw shooting and he didn’t receive much help either as Wisconsin drops two games back in conference play.

Bubble Banter: Objective, mathematically-correct evidence that the bubble sucks

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Here is our most recent bracket projection.

I spent some time on the podcast this week lamenting how week the bubble is this season and how this year, more than any other year that I can remember, the bubble is particularly atrocious.

You can hear that around the 18:00 mark below.

But I wanted to elaborate on it, because I found some data that can back this up more than just anecdotally.

Torvik, which is a college hoops analytics database similar to KenPom and KPI, has a metric that he calls “bid%” that, based on things like the NET, a team’s resume and their power rating, determines a number that projects how likely it is that team will get into the NCAA tournament. It’s not a crystal ball, but it is a way to objectively compare and contrast just how good teams are, year over year, on the bubble.

So let’s take a look at it, shall we?

In 2018, there were three teams with a bid% of at least 69 that did not receive an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament and five total with a bid% over 45 that were relegated to the NIT: USC (75.4), Louisville (69.3), Saint Mary’s (69.3), Middle Tennessee (47) and Marquette (45.1).

If the tournament started today, there would be as many as five projected at-large teams with a bid% under 45.

Now, some of that depends on teams like Nevada, Gonzaga, Wofford and VCU winning their automatic bid, which would eliminate bid thieves from the equation. Assuming that does happen, the bid%s for the last five teams projected by NBC Sports to receive at-large bids to the tournament this season are: Seton Hall (38), Butler (20.8), UCF (52), Oklahoma (68.1) and Temple (15.7). Georgetown (5.9) and UNC Greensboro (9.7) are projected as the first two teams out.

There’s your objective evidence.

The bubble, mathematically speaking, sucks.

To the action:

WINNERS

ST. JOHN’S (NET: 49, SOS: 64): The Johnnies picked up another Q2 win on Tuesday, beating Butler in overtime at home. They re now 4-4 against Q1 and 4-1 against Q2 with a pair of Q3 losses. As of today, they are in a pretty good spot, but they’ll get their last shot as beating one of the Big East’s elite on Sunday when they host Villanova.

BUFFALO (NET: 22, SOS: 95): I’ve put Buffalo in the conversation here simply because they play in a league where a loss would really hurt them, and one of their big wins during non-conference play — at West Virginia — has become pretty unremarkable. The Bulls have some margin for error, but not as much as they did two months ago.

LOSERS

ALABAMA (NET: 43, SOS: 23): The Crimson Tide got smoked on the road by Mississippi State on Tuesday night, dropping them to 2-6 in Q1 games. They do have six Q2 wins, but a trio of Q3 losses weighs their profile down. A win over Kentucky is going to hold value the rest of the season, however, and Avery Johnson’s team will get two more chances at Q1 wins at home in the last week of the season.

ARKANSAS (NET: 62, SOS: 44): When you’re trying to make up ground on the bubble, the last thing you want to do is lose to a team like Missouri, but that’s exactly what the Razorbacks did on Tuesday night. That said, a win at LSU is going to look even better after LSU won at Kentucky, but just two Q2 wins is not going to be enough. For comparison’s sake, Alabama has two Q1 wins and six Q2 wins. Arkansas has just three Q1 and Q2 wins total.

BUTLER (NET: 53, SOS: 29): Butler missed on a great chance to add another Q1 win to their resume on Tuesday night when they lost in overtime at St. John’s. As it stands, they just don’t have much at the top end of their profile to talk about. Butler is 1-7 against Q1 — with the one being a neutral court win over a Florida team that beat them by 34 on the road — and they lost to Georgetown at home. Winning at either Marquette or Villanova is a requirement.

TEXAS (NET: 33, SOS: 7): Texas fell at home to Kansas State (27) in a game that would have been really nice for their resume. As it stands, the Longhorns are now 14-11 overall and 6-6 in the Big 12. The fact that they have four Q1 wins (including North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas and at Kansas State by 20) and have playing the No. 7 schedule in the country helps. Their remaining schedule is: Oklahoma State, at Oklahoma, at Baylor, Iowa State, at Texas Tech, TCU. I think 3-3 will be enough to get them in, even with a loss in the Big 12 tournament. Are you ready for a 15 loss Big 12 team to dance? Because it’s probably going to happen.

Howard scores 36 as No. 10 Marquette beats DePaul 92-73

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CHICAGO — Markus Howard scored 36 points, Sam Hauser had 17 and No. 10 Marquette cruised by DePaul for a 92-73 victory on Tuesday night.

Howard went 12 for 21 from the field and 8 for 10 at the free-throw line in another impressive performance. He has scored at least 30 points in four of his last five games.

Sacar Anim added 12 points as Marquette (21-4, 10-2 Big East) won its second straight game since a disappointing 70-69 loss to St. John’s.

It was mostly smooth sailing for the Golden Eagles all night long. Hauser went to the locker room after he was poked in his right eye with 6:51 left, but he returned to the bench to watch the final minute with his jubilant teammates.

Femi Olujobi scored 19 points for DePaul (13-10, 5-7), and Max Strus had 16. Paul Reed finished with nine points and 11 rebounds.

Strus got DePaul within one when he converted a layup with 5:41 left in the first half. But Marquette then pulled away for good, going on an 11-0 run led by the shifty Howard.

The junior guard made two foul shots and a layup to increase the Golden Eagles’ lead to 39-34 with 4:46 left. After Jaylen Butz missed two foul shots for DePaul, Jamal Cain hit a 3-pointer from the corner to make it 46-34 with 1:23 remaining.

It was more of the same in the second half as Marquette continued to work the ball around for open looks. Cain and Anim scored before Ed Morrow made a foul shot to give the Eagles a 69-49 lead with 13:40 to go.

BIG PICTURE

Marquette: Howard is a terrific scorer, but Hauser also is quite an asset for the Golden Eagles with his ability to start a break off the glass. The 6-foot-8 swingman grabbed a defensive rebound in the first half, dribbled up the court and drained a 3-pointer to make it 29-21 with 11:14 left.

DePaul: Reed helped the Blue Demons to a 42-31 rebounding advantage, but they were picked apart on defense.

UP NEXT

Marquette is off for a week before hosting Butler on Feb. 20. The Golden Eagles beat the Bulldogs 76-58 in their first meeting of the season on Jan. 30.

DePaul visits Butler on Saturday night. The Blue Demons lost 87-69 to the Bulldogs on Jan. 16.

Jay Cohen can be reached at https://twitter.com/jcohenap

More AP college basketball: https://apnews.com/Collegebasketball and http://twitter.com/AP-Top25

Penn State upsets No. 6 Michigan as John Beilein ejected at halftime

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Penn State earned one of the college basketball season’s more surprising upsets on Tuesday night with a 75-69 Big Ten home win over No. 6 Michigan.

Only 1-11 in league play entering this game, Penn State built up a sizable first-half lead against a sluggish Michigan before Wolverines head coach John Beilein was ejected at the end of the half.

Beilein appeared to take issue with a non-call right before halftime. With Penn State on offense, Michigan guard Zavier Simpson attempted to fight through a screen and fell to the ground after hitting a Penn State screener, contributing to Nittany Lion guard Rasir Bolton scoring at the rim.

With Beilin receiving a double technical and getting ejected, Penn State took a 40-27 lead into the break with the added benefit of four free throws to start the second half (three were made).

Although Michigan rallied in the final two minutes to make things interesting — cutting the game to four multiple times in the final minute — the Wolverines never had the momentum to overcome to first-half deficit. Lamar Stevens paced Penn State with 26 points and 12 rebounds while freshman guard Myles Dread had 17 points for the Nittany Lions.

Outside of Charles Matthews (24 points) and Jordan Poole (17 points), the Michigan offense struggled to find someone else to step up. It also didn’t help that Simpson was a woeful 2-for-9 from the floor with eight points and six turnovers. Michigan’s defense was also shaky during stretches of this one as this was a puzzling game at times on both ends.

Playing without Beilein during the second half, it was a strange night for the Wolverines. Normally, a coach like him wouldn’t get tossed in a situation to end the first half in a game that meant more.

But the loss still happened. And, for the moment, it’s only a Quadrant 1 loss, so it won’t even look that bad for Michigan’s NCAA tournament purposes. As long as Michigan is able to overcome a difficult stretch the next few weeks, this won’t mean anything.

With two games left against Maryland, and two more against rival Michigan State, the Wolverines have to shake this loss off quickly if they want to stay in the Big Ten race.

Winston outduels Happ as No. 11 Michigan State beats No. 20 Wisconsin

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MADISON, Wis. — Michigan State coach Tom Izzo called it grit. Perhaps no Spartan embodied that more Tuesday night than his point guard.

Cassius Winston scored 23 points to help No. 11 Michigan State beat 20th-ranked Wisconsin 67-59.

In doing so, the Michigan State (20-5, 11-3 Big Ten) star outdueled Wisconsin’s Ethan Happ, who scored 20 points and grabbed 12 rebounds.

Izzo said it wasn’t just Winston’s effort on the offensive end that was key Tuesday, saying his point guard’s ability to lock down shooters on the outside ensure the Spartans didn’t have to stretch their defense, which would have helped open up the inside.

That perimeter defense also helped limit starting Wisconsin guards D’Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison to 11 points on 4 of 18 shooting.

“The ball is in his hands, I trust it,” Izzo said of Winston. “He made a couple of big, big plays tonight, that’s for sure.”

At times, the game seemed like a contest between the two heavyweights as Winston regularly answered Happ hook shots with a floater or 3-pointer.

But Wisconsin (17-7, 9-4) staggered down the stretch, going more than five minutes without a point as the Spartans put the game away.

“The whole night, we were throwing punches back and forth,” Happ said. “We felt we were in position to win the whole time.”

The game was still in doubt with 32 seconds to go before Kenny Goins hit a 3-pointer to give the Spartans a 62-56 lead. Wisconsin was then forced to foul, and Davison finally broke the Badgers’ scoreless streak making a 3-pointer with 10 seconds left.

Goins and Nick Ward each added 12 points for the Spartans, while Wisconsin’s Nate Reuvers was the only other player in double figures for scoring at 11.

As dominant as Happ was at times, he accounted for six of the Badgers’ 10 turnovers. He also missed all six free throw attempts he took, including two with the Badgers down 59-56 and 1:28 left.

The struggles at the free throw line have become a recurring theme for Happ this season. He’s now shooting less than 45 percent from the foul line, and was 1 for 7 in a 59-52 loss to Minnesota in early January.

“It’s not the lack of every feasible resource available as he’s worked on things,” said Wisconsin coach Greg Gard. “You gotta continue to chip away and hope there’s a breakthrown, continue to work with him. The biggest thing is you support him. He does so many good things for us.”

HAPP ON THE RISE

Happ’s 20 points put him at 2,000 for his career as he became the fourth player in the Big Ten — and the first in more than 35 years — to hit that mark and grab 1,000 rebounds. He also took over solo third place on Wisconsin’s all-time assists list on the Badgers’ first basket of the night as he found Nate Reuvers on the perimeter for a 3-pointer.

TO THE MONITORS

The referees went to the monitors twice for reviews, issuing a flagrant one on Michigan State’s Matt McQuaid the first half and deciding there was nothing more than a common foul on the second. In the first half, McQuaid held Brevin Pritzl by the jersey as the guard went up in the lane to pull in a pass. McQuaid let go as Pritzl went up for the shot, which he missed. Following the review, Pritzl got two free throws, both of which he hit, and Wisconsin got the ball, which resulted in a Pritzl 3. The referees went to the monitors again as Davison and McQuaid jostled in the block and then Davison went around McQuaid for a missed layup with 5:21 left. After review, the referees decided there was no hook and hold on Davison, who hit 1 of 2 from the line for the common foul on McQuaid. It would be the last Badgers point until Davison’s 3 with 10 seconds left.

BIG PICTURE

Michigan State: The Spartans, who had lost three in a row to start February, have now won back-to-back games.

Wisconsin: The Badgers, who had their six-game winning streak snapped on Saturday by Michigan, missed out on a chance to keep pace with the conference leaders.

UP NEXT

Michigan State: Hosts Ohio State on Sunday.

Wisconsin: Hosts Illinois on Monday.