Gwalior-Chambal Diary
Harish Dubey
Main Points
- BJP has tried Pavaiyya, Narottam and Harivallabh
- This time considering the names from Prabhat Jha to film stars
- BJP in indecision about Scindia’s name from two seats
After defeat in assembly polls, the BJP is treading cautiously while preparing for the Lok Sabha elections. The BJP’s first aim is to corner Congress stalwart Jyotiraditya Scindia who dominates the politics of this region.
Scindia’s name figures prominently at both Guna and Gwalior seats. Therefore BJP strategists are preparing strategy for both situations.The BJP will try to limit Jyotiraditya to his constituency so that he may not be able to campaign in other seats of Chambal region and the rest of state.
BJP has been fielding its stalwart leaders in Chambal.In 2009, Dr Narottam Mishra was pitted against Jyotiraditya, while in 2014 BJP gambled on Jaibhan Singh Pavaiyya.
In Mission 2019, BJP is considering to field leaders like Jaibhansingh Pavaiyya and Dr Narottam Mishra from Guna against Jyotiraditya.According to senior sources in the RSS, the Bill to restore the original SC/ST Atrocities Act, passed by the BJP-led government at the Centre in order to retain some of its most stringent provisions, resulted in upper caste anger against the party and hurt its chances in Madhya Pradesh (specifically Gwalior-Chambal and Malwa regions) and in Rajasthan.
In Madhya Pradesh’s Gwalior-Chambal region, where protests by Dalit groups led to the death of eight people this year, the party could win only seven out of the 34 seats, while in 2013 it had won 21 seats. A shift of OBC votes in Chhattisgarh is also being attributed to the SC/ST Act.
The RSS added, in its feedback, that a worrying trend of disenchantment among the party’s voters was reflected in the use of None Of The Above (NOTA) option available now. Earlier, the lack of this option meant that either the person would not vote or end up voting for the party as the alternative opposition party was even more unpalatable.
Although not all who vote NOTA can be considered disenchanted BJP voters, votes polled in earlier elections and now, along with NOTA margins in at least 11 seats in Madhya Pradesh, point in this direction.
Significantly, several BJP leaders in Delhi maintain that it was local anti-incumbency that did the party in.
There were certain issues, rural distress, the implementation the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and, of course, the SC/ST Act, which undermined local leaders.
There was, of course, local anti-incumbency, but the burden of the defeat cannot be laid entirely at the door of the local MLAs. So three former chief ministers — Raman Singh, Vasundhara Raje and Shivraj Singh Chouhan — have been asked to concentrate on their States for the upcoming 2019 polls.
If Scindia is fielded from Gwalior then BJP could consider some powerful names like Prabhat Jha, Jaibhan Singh, Narottam Mishra. BJP has also asked some other prominent leaders to be ready for contesting. BJP believes that if Scindia is not allowed to go out of Gwalior and Guna then it would easier for it to win in Malwa and Chambal regions where Scindia holds great influence.