5 years of Modi govt: How your country fared

NEW DELHI: In the last five years, Modi government not only revised past growth to show a better GDP performance but also kept a tight leash on deficit, subsidies, debt and prices. While it attracted foreign investment in plenty, it struggled to revive private domestic investment in industry, and proving that it was creating the jobs it had promised. Here's a look at nine stories that define five years of Modi government.



1. GROWTH UNAFFECTED BY DEMONETISATION

With Niti Aayog panel 'downgrading' UPA-era growth and Thursday's revision of 2016-18 data, Modi government's GDP growth record-7.6% average for 5 years-is comfortably ahead of UPA's 6.7%. This century's fastest growth year still belongs to UPA (8.5% in 2010-11).


India overtook France in 2018 to become the world's 6th largest economy. It will take 5th position from the UK this eyar on way to a $3 trillion GDP in 2020. Since 2000, India's share in global economy has doubled from 1.5% to 3.2%. China's share grew 5 times, from 3.6% to 15% during the same period. Per capita income (real measure of prosperity) is now nearing $2000, twice the level 10 years ago. China topped $2000 in 2006 and is now at $9000


2. AGRICULTURE'S SHARE IN NATIONAL INCOME CONTINUED TO PLUNGE

Farm sector's contribution to GDP fell below 15% in 2017-18 and continues to shrink further. The ongoing distress in the rural economy is only one symptom of this long-term trend.


RUPEE LOST 18% AGAINST DOLLAR

For all the jokes BJP leaders cracked about UPA's mishandling of the rupee-one among them being the currency valuce racing with Manmohan Singh's age-the Modi government couldn't do anything to prevent a further fall.

Read also: Union Budget 2019: How you fared during five years of Modi govt

3. DEFICIT IN CHECK

Fiscal deficit as % of GDP is down by more than one percentage point since 2013-14-aided by low global crude prices. But states have been less restrained and their rising deficits can wipe out the gains from the Centre's achievement.



4. SUBSIDIES TOO CAME DOWN

Deficit was kept in check by a dramatic fall in subsidies from 18.2% of total spending in 2012-13 to 11.8% in 2016-17. There has been a mariginal reversal since 2017-18.



5. BORROWINGS BECAME CHEAPER

Low and stable inflation combined with falling deficit helped RBI cut interest rates by more than one percentage point.





6. BUT LOWER INTEREST RATES DIDN'T BOOST PVT INVESTMENT

Though overall investment-measured by growth in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)-recovered from a low of 1.6% in 2013-14 to 10% in 2016-17, most of the increase came via public investments. Growth in bank lending to commercial sector fell to a 10-year low of 8% in 2016-17.



7. FOREIGN INVESTMENT TOUCHED A PEAK

Foreign investment flows kept breaking records during the first four years of the Modi govt, crossing $61bn in 2017-18. A chunk of these investments were for acquiring existing businesses, not setting up new ones.



8. ON JOB CREATION, GOVT FOUND ITSELF ON A BACK FOOT

Amidst talk of slow job creation, the labour ministry stopped releasing its quarterly survey of employment. The govt claimed jobs were being created but not captured in official estimates. On Jan 30, a media report on NSSO's periodic labour survey said that annual unemployment rate in 2017-18 was at a 45-year high of 61%. CMIE, which publishes a monthly employment report, estimated that at least a million jobs were lost in 2018, and unemployment rate rose from 5% in Jan to 7.4% in December.


9. FALL IN THE POVERTY COULD BE THE HAPPIEST NEWS