The price of major pulses may witness a rise in coming months as a shortfall is expected in domestic production as well as in global availability, according to a commodity report brought out by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML).
India’s chana (gram) production in 2018-19, for instance, is estimated to be 10.5 million tonnes (mt), nearly 6.5 per cent lower than 2017-18 production of 11.23 mt. “While the prices of chana are expected to be in the range of ₹4,400-4,600 a quintal in the first quarter of 2019, it may subsequently move towards the range of ₹5,700-6,200 per quintal which can be a probable peak for the rest of the year,” the India Commodity Year Book 2019, released by the India’s largest private sector agriculture post-harvest management company on Monday.
The production of gram in Australia, the second bigger producer, is said to be down by 73 per cent to 0.3 mt in 2018-19. This shortfall is more than what can be compensated by Canada and the US, the countries where a bumper gram production is expected in 2018-19.
Similarly, at 4.08 mt, tur production this year too is expected to be 9.33 per cent lower than that in the previous year. “The prices of tur remained below the minimum support price (MSP) of ₹5,450 per quintal. However, in the coming months prices are expected to reach the first level of resistance of ₹5,600 per quintal due to lower production estimate and lower yield expectation. On breach of the first level of resistance, prices may show resistance at ₹ 6,500 per quintal,” it said.
According to NCML, Indian traders had consumed the full tur import quota of 2 lakh tonnes in 2017-18 as in Myanmar tur was cheaper and parity was in favour of importers despite the 10 per cent import duty. Moreover, corporate buyers who are hoping that the government may open up imports in lean season, have already booked 3-4 lakh tonnes of tur in Myanmar. “The buyers are planning to store their inventory in Myanmar till the Indian government lifts restriction on imports,” it said. `
Urad production in 2018-19 is projected to be lower than the previous year’s 3.56 mt. While urad production in kharif 2018 was slated to be 2.65 mt and that in rabi is estimated to be 0.80 mt. According to the firm, despite the government increasing the MSP of urad to ₹5,600 from ₹5,400 a quintal, farmers shifted away from urad due to lower domestic prices throughout the year, it said.