Not just about the economy as a whole, CEOs are wary of their own organisation's growth prospects, with a significant dip in confidence in their company's revenue in the short to medium term
Chief executive officers (CEOs) across the globe harbour a grim outlook towards 2019 and the economy with nearly 30 percent of them projecting a decline in global economic growth, according to PwC's Annual Global CEO Survey. This is surprising when seen against the record jump in optimism projected by CEOs just last year.
The 'decline' and 'improve' trend lines approach one another this year as dramatically as they parted last year. Overall, CEOs are more polarised in their views on growth and few have taken a neutral stance.
The report clarifies that CEOs, who see improvement in the economy, are far more than pessimists, and even those projecting a 'decline' are referring to the rate of growth, not the economy itself.
Not just about the economy as a whole, CEOs are wary of their own organisation's growth prospects, with a significant dip in confidence in their company's revenue in the short to medium term. They also appear to be less certain about expanding their firms beyond home markets.
International trade tensions, political uncertainty and stricter monetary and fiscal policies are cited as reasons for this pessimism and have made the top management of companies most cautious.
"Global growth will be slower, but I don't see a massive recession any time in the next 18 months. What could throw that off is 'event risk', particularly around China, not so much trade as leverage and idiosyncratic counterparty events, given the amount of bond issues out of China," said Piyush Gupta, CEO of DBS Singapore, the largest bank in Southeast Asia by assets.
Even though protectionist sentiment has taken over many parts of the world, companies have shifted their focus from broad, existential threats to more inward, economic threats. In 2018, the CEOs considered terrorism, geopolitical uncertainty and climate change to be significant threats to businesses. However, in 2019, over-regulation, policy uncertainty, availability of skills and trade conflicts take the mantle as major risks for companies.
