Historic defeat in parliament leaves Brexit plans foundering
An historic defeat in parliament has left British prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit plans foundering, with new questions over her leadership and an imminent challenge to her government.
On Wednesday May's government will face a vote of no confidence, called by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, that could trigger an election.
But even if the government survives – which it is likely to do as it has the continuing support of the Northern Irish DUP – it has to come to terms with the biggest parliamentary defeat in the history of British democracy, delivered to the lynch-pin of its Brexit strategy.
Without the deal, if Brexit still takes place as planned on March 29, it will be a chaotic process that causes major and immediate damage to the UK's economy.
After eight days of debate the House of Commons rejected the deal that Theresa May negotiated to govern the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union by 432 to 202.
The previous worst-ever defeat for a British government was in 1924 when Ramsay Macdonald’s Labour minority government lost by 166 votes.
Scores of pro-Brexit defectors from May’s Conservative party doomed the deal, voting 'no' because they believe the deal did not deliver enough sovereignty or opportunity for the country.
They voted alongside most of Labour’s MPs who believed the deal was bad for the country and hope either to call a new Brexit referendum or to renegotiate a Brexit deal that keeps the UK much more closely tied to the EU.
The vote came after a day of fractious debate at the end of which May had called on the parliament to make a "historic decision that will set the future of our country for generations".
MPs could "deliver on our promise to the British people" or "break that promise and endanger trust in politics for a generation," May warned.
After the loss, which was bigger than pundits had forecast and much bigger than the government had hoped, a visibly angry May said the government “will listen” to the parliament.
"It is clear the House does not support this deal," May said. "But tonight's vote tells us nothing about what it does support." She promised to work with the DUP and others in parliament in a bid to find consensus.
"The government will approach these meetings in a constructive spirit," she said.
May has until Monday to deliver her ‘plan B’ for the country.
Before the vote her response to a loss had been widely tipped to be talks with the EU followed by another attempt to get a similar or identical deal through parliament.
However the scale of the loss could mean the deal needs major surgery, which could require a delay to Brexit and a renegotiation with the EU.
May has previously rejected calls to delay Brexit or backing a new referendum.
May promised to hold meetings with MPs from all parties to test levels of support for alternative options to the deal.
She insisted her strategy was not to “run down the clock” but to work constructively to find a way forward.
One of May’s most vocal rivals, former foreign secretary Boris Johnson, declared that May’s deal was “dead” and she must go back to the EU to seek more concessions.
European Commission president Jean_Claude Juncker reportedly flew back to Brussels on Tuesday to be ready for “emergency” Brexit talks on Wednesday.
EU leaders responded to the vote by warning the “risk of a disorderly exit” had increased, but the negotiated agreement “remains the best and only way to ensure an orderly withdrawal”.
However there could be more flexibility.
“We can adjust our trajectory… we can open all the dossiers,” said Mario Centeno, chairman of the eurozone and Portuguese finance minister.
German foreign minister Heiko Maas said “there could be further talks” but only limited change to the deal.
“I doubt very much that the agreement can be fundamentally reopened,” he said.
EU country leaders have previously said a renegotiated deal would be possible only if the UK’s ‘red lines’ changed – for instance if it was to consider allowing free movement of EU nationals into the UK after Brexit.
They have also indicated they would grant a short “technical” extension to the Brexit deadline if it was needed, and a longer extension if the UK was to hold a general election or new referendum.
May is largely immune from a leadership challenge for most of the year, after a failed coup in December.
However she may still be pushed to resign if her political opponents can unite behind a challenger.