Trade activity in South Africa improved slightly in November 2018 if adjusted for seasonal factors, yet prospects for the next six months remain muted, the SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) said on Wednesday.
"Although 2019 holds new promises, political uncertainty, municipal strikes, looming load shedding, land reform, and the deteriorating global economy are impacting trade conditions negatively, additional to sector-specific issues," Sacci said in a statement.
Sacci's seasonally adjusted Trade Activity Index (TAI) recorded 47 in December compared to 40 in November 2018. In December 2018 the non-seasonally adjusted TAI declined to 40 from the 43 of November 2018. Sacci points out that the retail sales component of the survey usually has a strong seasonal factor in December.
"Expectations for the next six months remained negative, notwithstanding that the Trade Expectations Index (TEI) increased slightly to 45 from 44 in November 2018," said Sacci.
"The TEI was 14 points below the December 2017 level of 59, mainly caused by high expectations in December 2017 following on the positive business climate after new leadership was elected by the ANC."
The sales sub-index declined by 3 index points to 43 in December, while the new orders index dropped by 6 index points. The sales outlook index was 50 compared to 52 in November 2018, while the sub-index for expected new orders increase marginally from 44 in November to 45 in December 2018.
The sales price index was sticky at 57 in December, and the input price index remained high at 71, but dropped 3 points in December 2018, according to Sacci.
Price expectations indicated a slight increase in inflationary prospects.
The employment sub-index improved marginally by 1 point to 39 and the six-month employment-outlook increased from 37 to 41.
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