
Troubles for the BJP are expected to mount in the northeastern states as the passage of the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016 in the Lok Sabha on Tuesday may trigger a negative sentiment ahead of the general elections this year. BJP chief Amit Shah had earlier claimed that his party will win 21 out of 25 seats on northeastern states. However, the protests against the Citizenship Bill by the BJP’s allies in the north-eastern states, especially in Assam, may dampen the hope of the party which is recovering from the recent loss in Assembly elections in three states and trying hard to keep its alliance intact in other parts of the country.
The Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016, seeks to amend the Citizenship Act of 1955 and aims to give citizenship to Hindu, Parsi, Sikh, Jain and Christian migrants from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Many see it as the Centre’s effort to selectively target only the Muslim migrants from across the border.
The center of protests lies in Assam, where BJP’s ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) pulled out of the government. Not only the allies, but BJP spokesperson Mehdi Alam Bora also resigned from the party, moments after the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill was passed in Lok Sabha.
The AGP is opposed to the Bill as it believes it will destroy Assam which has been grappling with the problem of illegal immigration from Bangladesh for decades now. Since May last year, Assam — especially the Brahmaputra Valley — has seen widespread protests against the Bill.
AGP alleges that the Bill violates the Assam Accord of 1985. For recognition as citizens, Clause 6 in the Assam Accord sets March 24, 1971, as the cutoff whereas the NRC sets it at 1951. The update is based on March 24, 1971, which defines citizenship. Clause 6 relates to “Assamese people”. Should 1951 be accepted as the cutoff, it would imply that those who migrated between 1951 and 1971 would be Indian citizens, but would not be eligible for safeguards meant for “Assamese people”.
The demand for NRC has become louder in the northeast states after the July 30 exercise in Assam. All the other states have demanded a similar exercise while at the same time safeguarding their border to prevent entry of illegal migrants, who were not included in the Assam NRC Bill, to enter their territories.
But the bone of contention here is the Citizenship Bill. Besides the Congress and the CPI(M) led Left Democratic Front (LDF), BJP allies such as Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) and National People’s Party (NPP) in Meghalaya and most other regional parties are strongly opposing the Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, asking for its withdrawal.
IPFT had raised a case for a revision of the citizens’ register to safeguard the state’s demography, despite Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Deb’s assertion that there is no need for it. Reports of a rift in the alliance surfaced hereafter, with the IPFT reportedly going back to its secessionist demand for a separate state (Twiparaland) for the state tribals.
Not only IPFT, but the other tribal party in the state INPT (Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura), which is a Congress ally, blocked the national highway and the lone railway line in the state last month, demanding the withdrawal of the Bill.
This could be a major setback for the saffron party which has worked hard to find its feet in the northeast. The party, which not even existed on the map of India’s northeast region five years ago, is now either the ruling party or part of an alliance in the ‘Seven Sister’ states.
The northeast region sends 25 MPs to the Lok Sabha, with 14 of them coming from Assam. Out of the 126 seats in the Assam Legislative Assembly, BJP has 61 seats while the AGP has 12 seats. AGP’s parting ways with the BJP may not affect its standing in the assembly, but it could affect the party’s social acceptability among the state tribals who have been most affected by the immigrants in the state, irrespective of which religion they belong to.
The BJP is already facing the brunt of its allies ahead of the general polls this year. Old ally TDP parted ways with the BJP last year. In Kashmir, the BJP itself pulled out of the government that was formed with the PDP. In Bihar, RLSP leader Upendra Kushwaha walked out of the alliance following difference over seat sharing. Other regional parties such as Apna Dal, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and Shiv Sena in Maharashtra are also threatening to leave the alliance before the elections.
Who is opposing the Bill in other north-eastern states
In Mizoram, parties like People’s Representation for Identity and Status of Mizoram (PRISM) along with influential NGOs such as Young Mizo Association, are strongly opposing the Bill. In Nagaland, Nagaland Tribes Council (NTC) is against the Bill.
Besides the political parties, the influential North East Students Organisation (NESO), an umbrella body of eight students and youth organisations of the seven northeastern states, called for 11-hour shutdown in the entire northeast on Tuesday.
In Arunachal Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) has expressed its solidarity with the NESO agitation against the Bill.