Why Congo Election Is Destined for a Chaotic Outcome: QuickTake

Jan 08 2019, 6:00 AMJan 08 2019, 9:02 AMJanuary 08 2019, 6:00 AMJanuary 08 2019, 9:02 AM

(Bloomberg) -- The Democratic Republic of Congo, sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest country, has never witnessed a democratic transfer of power. Joseph Kabila inherited the presidency of the resource-rich nation from his father, Laurent-Desire, who was assassinated in 2001, four years after he led a rebel army to overthrow long-serving dictator Mobutu Sese Seko. Hopes for an uncontested transition following the most recent election, held on Dec. 30, are dimming.

1. Who won the election?

That’s not yet clear. Provisional results were supposed to be released on Jan. 6, but the National Independent Electoral Commission postponed the announcement, saying just over half the ballots from polling stations had reached counting centers. The commission hasn’t said when tallying will be completed. Martin Fayulu, an opposition leader, said he feared moves may be afoot to rig the contest in favor of Kabila’s preferred successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary.

2. Who else is in the running?

Along with Fayulu, a former Exxon Mobil Corp. manager who heads a small party in the National Assembly and is backed by several heavyweight politicians, the other main opposition candidate is Felix Tshisekedi, the leader of the second-biggest party, the Union for Democracy and Social Progress. A body representing Congo’s Catholic bishops said results collected by its 40,000-strong observer mission showed there was a clear winner but didn’t identify who it was. The New York Times cited a senior adviser to Kabila as saying the Catholic organization believes Fayulu won. Shadary’s campaign and the electoral commission rebuked the bishops and told everyone to wait for the official announcement. The government has sought to limit speculation about the outcome by cutting off the internet the day after the vote.

3. What are the concerns about the vote’s credibility?

The electoral commission postponed balloting in three regions until March, citing concerns about an Ebola outbreak and militia violence, which effectively deprived 1.2 million people in opposition strongholds from having a say on who will be the next president. Also, despite the presence of more than 16,000 United Nations peacekeepers, Congo’s government refused logistical support from the UN and financial assistance from international donors to organize the vote, which was initially supposed to be in late 2016. While the vote was largely peaceful, the opposition said the process was badly flawed, with broken voting machines, delays and vote-buying. The chairman of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee at the time of the election described it as "neither free nor fair." But electoral commission chief Corneille Nangaa said most polling stations opened on time and voting machines worked well, and an observer mission from the Southern African Development Community said in a preliminary report that the elections “were relatively well managed and the electoral process unfolded relatively well.” An African Union team also endorsed the handling of the vote.

4. What are the risks going forward?

While the electoral commission is likely to announce the results later this month, there’s a strong possibility they may be rejected by the losers. That could lead to legal challenges and a prolonged period of political uncertainty -- the last thing that’s needed in a nation that was already confronting insecurity, particularly in the eastern regions, and rampant poverty. There also may be further fallout from the claim by the Catholic bishops’ organization that it already knows of a clear winner: the electoral commission and Shadary’s campaign have accused the group of violating the constitution and the law in a manner that could spark a popular revolt.

5. What are investors watching?

Congo, a nation of about 81 million, accounts for two-thirds of global production of cobalt, a metal used in rechargeable batteries, and has deposits of gold, diamonds, tin and coltan, an ore that contains a metal used in mobile phones. Glencore Plc, China Molybdenum Co. and Randgold Resources Ltd. are among companies operating in the country. Shadary, if elected, is likely to stick with a new law that’s sharply raised costs for all mineral producers and imposes a 10 percent royalty on cobalt exports. Should one of the opposition candidates prevail, he may be more sympathetic to mining companies that oppose the additional levies. The economy is forecast to grow 3.8 percent this year, and an average of 4.3 percent annually over the next three years, according to the International Monetary Fund.

6. What’s the ruling party candidate pledged to do?

Shadary, the permanent secretary of Kabila’s People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy and a former interior minister, has pledged to almost triple government spending to raise civil servants’ salaries, create jobs and improve health and education. He’s also undertaken to improve security, especially in the country’s east, which has been wracked by inter-communal violence for more than two decades. He intends to fund his plans by raising more tax revenue from companies exporting Congo’s natural resources.

7. What about the opposition candidates?

Fayulu and Tshisekedi have both said they would clamp down on rampant corruption, enhance security and promote development. Tshisekedi has the backing of Vital Kamerhe, who finished third in a 2011 vote, and they’ve agreed that Tshisekedi would serve as president and Kamerhe as his prime minister, swapping roles after the next election in 2023.