New Delhi: Indian economy is expected to decelerate significantly in the second half (October-March) of 2018-19 with the Central Statistics Office (CSO) projecting the full-year GDP growth rate for the current fiscal at 7.2%, much lower than expected. This is also lower than the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) estimate of 7.4% growth in its latest monetary policy. In 2017-18, GDP grew at 6.7%.
The CSO on Monday released the first advance estimates for the fiscal ending 31 March 2019, mainly for the finance ministry to use as the base for its calculations in the interim budget to be presented on 1 February.
During the first half (April-September) of the current financial year, the Indian economy grew at 7.6%. By that measure, the CSO expects the economy to grow at around 6.8% in October-March.
However, CSO estimated nominal GDP growth of 12.3% for 2018-19, as against the finance ministry’s assumption of 11.5% for the same year, will help the government currently facing revenue shortfall meet the fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of GDP.