JD(S) greed could undo coalition

The ruling coalition in Karnataka has never been short of troubles, courtesy mostly infighting and dissent in the Congress. But what could turn out to be its undoing are the tactics being adopted currently by the JD(S) to extract its pound of flesh in seat-sharing for the parliamentary elections. 

JD(S) supremo H D Deve Gowda’s announcement that the party would contest from 12 of 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka probably took Congress leaders by surprise, as they were not expecting to discuss the numbers until they sat down for talks closer to the elections. But Gowda clearly wanted a build-up before the negotiation actually happens.

That he followed it up with a similar statement in Delhi shows how he wanted to nudge the Congress into an early sitting. Adding to the narrative, a day later, the party talked about going it alone if it doesn’t get the number it wants. Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy added his bit on Thursday when he said he hoped the Congress would treat its ally well. The coalition has been following the 2:1 formula while sharing Cabinet berths and other positions in the government.

Under the formula, the JD(S) would be able to contest 9-10 seats, but considering that it currently holds just two seats and the Congress represents 10, the demand does not seem proportionate to its strength and spread in the state. However, it is an alliance and there has to be give-and-take between partners. No doubt the JD(S) will try to exploit the Congress’ need for allies, but letting the former have its way could hurt the alliance and help the BJP in the bargain.

The threat here is that if denied, the JD(S) may contest on its own. It can still retain its two seats and maybe win one more. But the Congress can’t afford to lose the JD(S) as an ally, especially because it may need Gowda’s help to stitch together an alliance at the national level. The Congress needs to tread carefully, for the JD(S) is an ally it can afford to neither satisfy nor anger.