Tiruvarur bypoll could be a trailer for Lok Sabha elections

CHENNAI: Will the Tiruvarur by-polls prove to be a trailer for the mega Lok Sabha elections later this year? It is likely, at least with regard to finalisation of alliances. The results of the bypoll, which will be announced at the end of this month, will set the mood for Lok Sabha elections, and every major party has its own set of challenges. 

The man who has a lot to prove, perhaps, is DMK president MK Stalin. He is fighting to retain a seat vacated by his father and party patriarch M Karunanidhi. He is fighting for a seat held by DMK for the last three decades. The party has won the seat in all the seven Assembly elections since 1984. 

Last couple of times, Karunanidhi, a native of Tiruvarur, won by a margin of at least 50,000 votes. This time though, Stalin will have to face two big challenges. The first, and perhaps the biggest, trouble is the possibility of Stalin’s elder brother MK Alagiri contesting as a rebel candidate. 

Alagiri, who was ousted from the party, recently said that “the prospects of victory is bright” if he contested from the seat. If that happens, Alagiri has the potential to play spoilsport even if he does not end up winning the seat. Winning the seat is crucial for the DMK to also gain the trust of its alliance partners. 
The second challenge for Stalin is RK Nagar MLA TTV Dhinakaran. After his strongman Senthil Balaji ditched him and switched camps to the DMK, Dhinakaran vowed to humiliate the rival party by winning the Tiruvarur seat. Since his victory from RK Nagar last year, when DMK was pushed to the third spot, Dhinakaran has a reputation of being a formidable rival. 
For Dhinakaran, however, Tiruvarur will not be as easy as RK Nagar. His uncle V Dhivakaran, who is at loggerheads, has a considerable base in the delta region and is likely to try split votes. For ruling AIADMK, the party has to get at least more votes than Dhinakaran’s outfit, if not win the elections, to retain the confidence of its cadre. 

“A lot depends on MK Alagiri. If he contests, DMK will face a big challenge. For AIADMK, if they win, it will be considered as an approval of their governance and be a big boost for them to face the upcoming parliamentary polls. Even if they lose, it’s unlikely to affect them much as the seat is considered a DMK stronghold,” says political analyst Raveenthran Duraisamy. 

“If DMK loses, its alliances may get impacted. In short, the bypoll will decide how alliances are formed in Tamil Nadu for the upcoming parliamentary polls,” says veteran journalist Tharasu Shyam. “A DMK victory may also push AIADMK to consider merging Dhinakaran’s outfit for a combined attack on the rival.”

AIADMK gearing up for jANUARY 28 BY-ELECTION

Chennai: The ruling AIADMK is gearing to face the by-election to the Tiruvarur Assembly constituency which is scheduled to take place on January 28. The party has already called for applications from aspirants in the party to contest the by-election. The aspirants can submit their applications on January 3 and 4.  On the evening of January 4, Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami and Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam would scrutinise the applications and take a decision on the candidate.  

Tiruvarur Assembly seat results since 1984
1984
M Sellamuthu(CPM): 56,273 
( DMK alliance)
P Selvadurai (INC) : 44,227
1989
Thambusamy( CPM): 52,520 
(DMK alliance)
Nagooran Raja(AIADMK - J): 26,500
Padma ( INC): 21,637
1991
Thambusamy (CPM) : 55,653
(DMK alliance)
M Ramasamy(INC): 50,406
1996
A Shokan(DMK): 69,212
P Arumugapandian(INC): 24,845
2001
A Ashokan(DMK) : 58,425
K Rengasamy( CPM): 57,111
2006
U Mathivanan(DMK) : 76,423
A Thangamani(AIADMK): 49,946
2011
M Karunanidhi(DMK): 1,09,014
M Rajendaran( DMK) : 58,765
2016
M Karunanidhi( DMK): 1,20,435
R Paneer Selvam
(AIADMK) : 52,886

The AIADMK had already announced a big team of functionaries in charge of 20 vacant Assembly constituencies.  Meanwhile, in a politically significant development, Law Minister CVe Shanmugam called on Union Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad and submitted a memorandum to him, reminding him of the Tamil Nadu’s demand for making Tamil the official language of the Madras High Court. Meanwhile, Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam, said, “The AIADMK will register a massive victory in Tiruvarur by-election either by contesting it alone or by forging an alliance.”  

VCK urges ECI to conduct bypolls for all 20 assembly segments

Chennai: The Election Commission of India (ECI) should take steps to conduct by-election for all the 20 vacant Assembly segments, urged Thol Thirumavalavan, VCK president. Thirumavalavan expressed his surprise at ECI’s announcement regarding the poll schedule announcement only for Tiruvarur when a total of 20 Assembly segments in the State were lying vacant.  He conveyed his doubts as to “whether the ECI has become one of the wings of the ruling party.” He further added, “The VCK condemns this biased approach of the ECI and we urge it to announce the poll schedule for all the 20 Assembly segments as there is no stay towards conducting the elections,” he pointed out.