Image of a ‘splintered opposition’ has set off talks among BJP leadership about how that can help party both ‘arithmetically and in terms of perception’.

New Delhi: Soon after its ouster in key Hindi heartland states, three developments in the past week have given a boost to the BJP’s hopes of not having to face a united and formidable opposition in 2019 — something the party believes can help it “both arithmetically and in terms of perception”.

According to highly placed sources in the party, this has set off conversations among the leadership about how the BJP might benefit from these developments, and what it can do “to cash in on this public spectacle of a splintered opposition”.

A ‘divided’ opposition 

Last Sunday, DMK chief Stalin proposed Rahul Gandhi’s name as the prime ministerial candidate for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections at a rally in Chennai — a suggestion that was publicly snubbed by several opposition leaders, including West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav and the Left parties.

A day later, leaders such as Banerjee, Yadav and Bahujan Samaj Party’s Mayawati did not turn up for the swearing-in ceremonies of Congress CMs in three states — a stark difference from seven months ago when all these leaders stood on the dais at the oath-taking ceremony of Karnataka CM H.D. Kumaraswamy. Also, on Wednesday, fresh from its impressive electoral show, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) batted for a non-Congress, non-BJP federal front.

“One, this gives the impression that the opposition is confused and divided, which further enhances PM Modi’s image of being a strong leader who leads a united party. This helps with perception,” said a senior BJP leader who did not wish to be identified.

“Two, it is a big boost arithmetically if these parties remain divided, particularly if even state-wise alliances don’t work out,” the BJP source added.

Its rival parties joining hands has spelt trouble for the BJP. For instance, in Uttar Pradesh bypolls earlier this year, including the one in CM Yogi Adityanath’s turf Gorakhpur, the BJP suffered embarrassing defeats with the opposition coming together against it.

The BJP, which recently lost three key states to the Congress, has been seeing an erosion of its urban base as well, besides the disillusionment in the rural/agrarian community.

Opposition ‘power tussle’ 

According to political analysts, this “coalition” of opposition parties has several inherent contradictions.

“All these anti-BJP forces represent different interests and have different pockets of influence. To expect them to come together overnight based on an anti-BJP glue is unrealistic,” said Sandeep Shastri, political commentator and national coordinator of Lokniti Network.

“The election in 2019 will not be about a mahagathbandhan but 29 different alliances in states. There will be state-by-state coalitions. What we need to wait and see is how effectively these state-wise alliances emerge in terms of challenging BJP,” he added.

The BJP leadership also believes it can highlight these power tussles within the opposition during its campaign in order to “underline the instability factor”.

“Mamata, Akhilesh, Mayawati, Naidu and now TRS — all jostling for power. This is an important optic which we can constantly talk about to drive home the point of an unstable opposition versus a stable Modi,” said another BJP leader, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

“The party leadership is in the process of devising a cohesive strategy on how to use this to our best advantage, right down to the cadres.”

No advantage for BJP, says Congress

The Congress, meanwhile, continues to put up a brave front and maintain that these developments do not give any advantage to the BJP.

“These are not putting the BJP at any advantage,” said Priyanka Chaturvedi, national spokesperson of the Congress and convener, AICC communication.

“When we went into elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, questions were raised about the fact that we did not fight in an alliance. But despite that, we defeated BJP in all three states,” she added.

Chaturvedi said the Congress is currently holding discussions with all opposition parties. “We are open to a coalition and it is upon other parties to also understand it has to be a win-win alliance, and not compromise just for the sake of it,” she said.

She also said there is no “splintered opposition” as claimed by the BJP.

Analysts argue that the BJP stands to gain a lot if there is no alliance of opposition parties.

“If no alliance happens or if it’s just a loose alliance of some smaller parties, the BJP stands to gain a lot. In most states, if the opposition vote is divided, it is advantage BJP,” said Sanjay Kumar, director at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.

“If they want to restrict Modi, opposition parties need to come together and not be constantly seen as criticising each other and fighting with one another. The process of forging an alliance is more important than the outcome.”

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