Turkey Planning to Buy Both Russian and U.S.-Made Missiles

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. proposal to sell an advanced air defense system to Turkey is probably too little and too late for Ankara to abandon an arms deal with Russia that’s strained relations between the NATO allies.

Turkey is planning to buy both Russian and U.S.-made missile-defense systems even if Washington agrees to sell Patriot batteries to Ankara, two Turkish government officials familiar with the country’s defense policy said Wednesday. It’s not clear the U.S. would agree to that.

The U.S. State Department notified Congress on Tuesday that it has proposed selling Turkey the missile defense system, a gambit designed to get Ankara to halt the S-400 deal, which could compromise NATO technology. The Kremlin said the sale would be unaffected by Washington’s offer, and Turkey’s Defense Ministry declined to comment.

Ankara is trying to diversify defense suppliers, and one big advantage of the Russian systems is that it gives the buyer some control over the technology, unlike American counterparts, said Konstantin Makienko, deputy head of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow think tank.

“There is a 90 percent chance that the Russian contract on the S-400s will be implemented,” Makienko said. “They also may buy Patriots in the future.”

No Deal

The U.S. won’t go ahead with the sale if the Russian deal goes through, said Tim Ash, London-based strategist at BlueBay Asset Management LLC.

Turkey may be looking to link the defense purchases to other disputes it is having with the U.S., including Washington’s support for Syrian Kurdish fighters and conviction of a Turkish banker on Iran sanctions violations charges, Ash said.

“Turkey cannot buy both,” Ash said. “The Turks might be trying to drive too hard a bargain, and might end up with nothing as a result.”

The U.S. has threatened to freeze Turkey out of the F-35 stealth fighter jet program if the S-400 purchases goes through. Turkey is a crucial partner in the U.S.-led project, with 10 Turkish companies set to produce about $12 billion in parts.

Turkey finalized plans to buy the Russian systems last year, with first delivery scheduled for October 2019. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been adamant that Turkey would take the Russian missile system, saying traditional allies in the West failed to meet his country’s defensive needs.

Russia has promised Turkey joint production and technology transfer as part of the agreement, a key Turkish demand. That said, officials in Ankara have lately softened demands on transferring know-how should the U.S. decide to sell some of its most advanced air defense systems.

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