Ahmedabad: The high-stakes assembly bypolls in Jasdan on 20 December will put to test the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) strategy in the crucial Saurasthra region ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. It will also be a test for candidates who switched sides.
While a victory will help the ruling party further its goal of retaining all the 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat, a loss could put it on the back foot in the Saurasthra region where it suffered a major setback in the 2017 assembly elections.
The Jasdan assembly seat fell vacant in July after sitting member of legislative assembly (MLA) Kunvarji Bavaliya quit the Congress to join the BJP. Bavaliya was soon sworn in as a minister in the cabinet of chief minister Vijay Rupani.
For the 20 December byelection, the BJP has fielded Bavaliya against Congress candidate Avsar Nakiya.
While Bavaliya, a four-time MLA from Jasdan, is confident of a win, the Congress party said locals will not elect a deserter.
Last year, the BJP faced one of its toughest electoral challenges in Gujarat in the last two decades, and lost ground to the Congress in Saurasthra. Bavaliya is seen as a strongman of the dominant Koli community, in an area where farm distress and unemployment helped the Congress party win 79 seats in the 2017 state assembly elections, up from 61 in 2012.
“The Kolis have a strong base in Saurashtra and their votes are crucial in as many as five seats of Saurashtra where they hold over 30% vote share. In Gujarat the population of Kolis is about 20%. With unrest among some Patels, it was part of (BJP president) Amit Shah’s strategy to place a strong Koli candidate in Saurashtra region even if it meant giving a cabinet-level post in exchange,” said Amit Dholakia, professor of political science at Maharaja Sayajirao University in Vadodara.
“This led to some dissent among many senior BJP MLAs who felt they were being left out. An upset at Jasdan could lead to a loss of face for the BJP and Shah.”
Dholakia added that the party will have to re-work its strategy in case of a loss, but that will not be easy given that the Jasdan seat is close to CM Vijay Rupani’s Rajkot constituency.
The bypoll in Gujarat—the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Shah—comes close on the heels of the BJP’s dismal performances in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where it lost to the Congress. Other than Rajasthan, Gujarat was the only other state where the BJP had won all the Lok Sabha seats in 2014.