Assembly election results: Voters have fired a warning shot

Tuesday’s electoral outcome reveals the inherent checks in Indian democracy and its ability to maintain a degree of balance in the polity. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) dream run began with the Gujarat elections at the end of 2012, when Narendra Modi won for the third time, setting the stage for his Prime Ministerial bid. In 2013, the BJP won Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. And it swept to power in Delhi, becoming the first party in 30 years to win an outright majority. Since the Lok Sabha elections four and a half years ago, there have been 22 elections. The BJP has been able to form the government after 14 of those polls. This has resulted in the outright dominance of the party across the polity, especially in north, west, central, east and northeast India (the south remains an exception). Till Tuesday’s results came in, it was in power in 18 Indian states. This dominance has resulted in a deep penetration of state institutions by those loyal to the party. And it has resulted in the public discourse being fundamentally driven by the ideological world view, priorities, and rhetoric of those belonging to the ruling party and its ideological parent, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).

With the Congress — the only national challenger to the BJP — returning to power in the heartland states, which exercise a disproportionate influence in national politics, this changes. One need not be a partisan political player to recognise that a democracy needs political competition. It needs challenges to power. It needs State authority to be constrained. It needs santulan, balance.

Here is what the verdict means for the BJP. Yes, it had been in power for 15 years in MP and Chhattisgarh. Yes, there is a cyclical pattern in Rajasthan. And yes, it was not a major player in Telangana. But the fact is that there is resentment that has built across the very classes and social groups which voted for the BJP in the past. There has been a dip across the board in terms of the party’s vote share. Farmers are angry for not getting prices they hoped for. Traders are unhappy with the continuing slowdown because of demonetisation and the implementation of GST. The young are upset at the absence of jobs. The upper castes feel the BJP has turned against them, while Dalits are getting increasingly furious at what they see as the upper caste character of the party. And moderate voters are jaded with what they see as the continued thrust of the ruling party to push religious polarisation, which is a distraction at best, and deeply dangerous at worst. Modi’s integrity is still not in doubt, notwithstanding the Rafale allegations, but his economic and governance delivery is increasingly coming under question. The BJP’s machine is still powerful, but its ability to maintain a balance among its various constituents is now under strain.

All of this has helped the Congress return. But its leaders, too, must recognise that it is disillusionment with the BJP, rather than deep attraction for the Congress, that has led to a shift in mood. It is getting the mix of leadership, caste, organisation, and economic narrative right. But this is an increasingly impatient electorate. If the Congress fails to deliver to farmers and does not manage to create jobs — both are challenging policy puzzles — and if it goes back to being perceived as corrupt, then power will slip away. The Congress also must know that voters are very aware of how to distinguish between national and state elections. A win now is no way a guarantee of a win in 2019. Modi’s track record shows he cannot be underestimated.

The outcome had a mixed message for regional parties. While the Bahujan Samaj Party across the three heartland states and Ajit Jogi in Chhattisgarh could not emerge as the swing forces as they would have liked, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi’s sweep in Telangana indicates the resilience of regional parties which cater to sub nationalist sentiments and supplement it with welfare politics. The non-Congress, non-BJP parties will continue to play a big role in 2019.

For now, though, the message from the citizens is clear. They do not want outright hegemony of one party. They have warned the ruling party. They have clearly outlined their priorities as fundamentally concerned with livelihood and economic well being. And they have given a much needed morale booster to the opposition. The 2019 election is now well and truly an open contest. And irrespective of who wins, that is good news for democracy.

First Published: Dec 12, 2018 06:50 IST