Who could replace Theresa May? The runners and riders
If Theresa May loses Wednesday’s confidence vote (or if she wins it narrowly enough that she decides she must resign anyway) then her parliamentary colleagues will choose one or two candidates to replace her.
If they pick two, party members across the country will vote for their next leader. Candidates likely to be considered include:
Boris Johnson, 54
When a political rival gives a magazine interview revealing he’s been cutting back on the booze, cheese and chorizo in order to lose weight, you know he’s after your job.
The charismatic, eccentric former London mayor had been expected to be a contender to replace David Cameron after the Brexit referendum, but pulled out of the race unexpectedly.
Since then he’s lurked as May’s biggest rival. He had a spotty record, proving gaffe-prone as foreign secretary, then quitting Cabinet earlier this year announcing he couldn’t support the direction May was taking Brexit.
He used his well-remunerated pulpit in the Telegraph to deliver loud, repeated criticism of May’s Brexit.
He claims he would “ditch this (Brexit withdrawal) deal, bin the backstop (a controversial deal insurance policy for the Irish border) and make the change that will launch us on a nimbler, lither and more dynamic future.”
But Johnson is not considered the favourite to win – he’s too divisive a figure among colleagues.
Sajid Javid, 49
The Home Secretary is considered the favourite to replace May – though that has historically been a poison chalice for would-be Tory leaders.
He also gave a few pointed interviews recently, while publicly declaring his support for the PM.
The son of an immigrant bus driver has been described as the UK’s first Muslim home secretary – though he has said while his family’s heritage is Muslim he does not practice any religion.
He is a millionaire former banker who enjoys Star Trek movies and has been applauded for speaking out against anti-Semitism.
Javid told the Spectator magazine he wants the Conservatives to be seen as the party of “opportunity”.
“The much bigger picture is social mobility,” he said. “I want Britain to be that kind of opportunity society where the government is your friend.”
He is currently working on the country’s new immigration policy.
But his biggest problem with Tory MPs could be that, like May, he voted Remain in the Brexit referendum – though he has said he has since changed his mind.
Dominic Raab, 44
Raab was briefly Brexit secretary, but quit after just four months saying the withdrawal deal negotiated on his watch had “two major and fatal flaws”.
He has long argued for Brexit, and believes the UK could have pressed harder for a better deal.
His resignation significantly lifted his stocks among pro-Brexit MPs and party members, and his experience with the minutiae of the Brexit negotiation could make him an attractive candidate to renegotiate the deal with Brussels, if that’s what the party wants.
But his relative obscurity could prove a turn-off for the public.
David Davis, 69
The gruff, plain-spoken original Brexit secretary resigned in the middle of the year over the PM’s proposed Brexit plan.
The former infantry soldier and Harvard business graduate lost to David Cameron in the 2005 leadership ballot, but has remained popular with colleagues and the party base.
Like Raab, his hands-on experience with Brexit would be seen as a useful skill in the top job.
Jeremy Hunt, 52
As the longest-serving Health Secretary in the history of the NHS, Hunt has weathered plenty of controversies but also won a reputation as a safe pair of hands.
This year he was promoted to Foreign Secretary, one of the high offices of state.
He campaigned against Brexit but has since said he accepts the result of the referendum.
Amber Rudd, 55
The former home secretary resigned after taking responsibility for the Windrush immigration scandal, but it was later revealed she was badly advised by her department over a policy that was a legacy from May’s time in the Home Office.
She is popular with colleagues and returned to the Cabinet recently as secretary of state for work and pensions.
But, like Raab, she voted for Remain – and unlike him she says she would do so again. As such, she would be an odd choice to replace a prime minister toppled over accusations she was not committed enough to Brexit.
Michael Gove, 51
The former Boris Johnson ally and Leave campaigner dramatically deserted his friend during the last leadership campaign, and joined Theresa May’s cabinet as Environment Secretary.
Since then he has chosen to be a voice for Brexit inside the Cabinet, rather than quitting as many of his pro-Brexit colleagues did.
He has a fairly high public profile, thanks to an idiosyncratic speaking style and prolific newspaper and magazine column-writing (he’s said to be a friend of Rupert Murdoch).
And as Environment Secretary he had several notable wins on cutting down on the use of plastic.
However, he would be a reluctant candidate.
Jacob Rees-Mogg, 49
Rees-Mogg, who presents as a 19th century caricature but who has been the intellectual leader of the pro-Brexit resistance, would be an unlikely leader.
Though he is highly influential in his faction of the Conservatives, he himself admits he has never had ministerial experience.
Others to watch
- Penny Mordaunt, a pro-Brexit minister
- Esther McVey: a pro-Brexit former minister