May’s Delay Reveals a Government in Name Only

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Theresa May will make a statement in the House of Commons later today. It looks certain she has decided to pull a vote on her Brexit deal, something she was set to lose by a large majority.

Let's reserve judgment for the time being on whether the Brexit roller-coaster just hit a sudden, jerky turn or is about to derail altogether. The manner of the reversal itself says a lot about where we are.

If there is one thing politicians hate perhaps almost as much as being out of power, it is being out of the loop. On Sunday, the minister in charge of Brexit, Stephen Barclay, told the BBC that the parliamentary vote was on: “It's 100 percent happening,” he said. On Monday morning, Environment Secretary Michael Gove, a Brexiter heavyweight in May's cabinet, echoed that certainty. Asked on the BBC’s Today program if it was 100 percent going to happen, he replied “Yes.”

Holding a vote you will certainly lose might have seemed the only way that May could wring last-minute concessions out of Brussels. But it appears those calculations have changed, perhaps following conversations with Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar and European Union President Donald Tusk.

According to Bloomberg News, she now plans to go back to Brussels on Thursday to ask for concessions on the controversial Irish backstop – the plan to keep the Irish border open. It is in Europe's interest too that the deal survives, but so far the bloc has been unwilling to reopen discussions on the legally binding withdrawal agreement (as opposed to the non-binding political declaration).

There are other reasons the prime minister is playing for time. It's possible that May is now reconsidering her opposition to a second referendum, something many in her own party and the opposition Labour Party are calling for. Or she could be taking a step back to prepare for what seems like an inevitable vote of confidence.

Whatever her reasons, the reversal itself was clearly born of desperation; the result of an endgame that has not at all gone according to plan. Presumably both ministers who so publicly promised the vote would go ahead were relaying what they thought was a true reflection of May's plans. Politicians of Gove's profile don't go on national TV or radio saying something is 100 percent certain only to be proved totally wrong hours later. In all likelihood, May herself changed her mind at the last minute.

That is not how cohesive governments operate. May, it seems, looks cornered on the chess board. She has some moves left, but they are limited and look desperate. Whether or not the U.K. is pursuing Brexit in name only, as many Brexiters claim, it certainly has a government in name only. May can choose the next step, but where Brexit goes ultimately looks to be out of her hands.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Therese Raphael writes editorials on European politics and economics for Bloomberg Opinion. She was editorial page editor of the Wall Street Journal Europe.

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