BJP, Congress focus on fringe players ahead of assembly elections results

NEW DELHI: With exit polls pointing to close contests and even hung assemblies, smaller parties and independents have acquired a disproportionate importance as BJP and Congress managers look to mop up numbers in the event of a shortfall that leaves the parties stranded at less than the majority mark.

The dramatic turn of events in Karnataka is fresh in the minds of BJP and Congress as the initial saffron surge petered out and the party fell short of seven MLAs, paving the way for a Congress-JD(S) alliance where the smaller regional party wrested the CM’s post. While the current crop of polls are largely a Congress versus BJP affair, leaving no room for a JD(S)-type player, exit polls seem to have set the cat among the pigeons.

If MP throws up an unclear mandate, there would be independents as well as BSP and Gondwana Gomantak Party to watch out for. In Chhattisgarh, BSP, Congress renegade Ajit Jogi’s Chhattisgarh Janata Congress and independents would come in for attention.

Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM and BJP would be crucial in Telangana if results deliver a hung assembly. Mizoram could be the foremost candidate for wooing of minor players this time if Congress and MNF are both short of a majority. Former Congress leader-turned-BJP strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma could be in business if Congress fails to secure a majority as he was in Manipur. With CM Lal Thanhawla himself a past master in political games, a close result may witness intense competition in this province.

In May, Karnataka witnessed a protracted war of wits as BJP just could not breach the rival fort to poach MLAs, this despite the governor swearing in BS Yeddyurappa as CM. This led to an 80-MLA Congress and allies support a 37-MLA JD(S) to prop up HD Kumaraswamy as head of a coalition government. Strategists said reaching out to BSP or CJC leadership in Chhattisgarh was an obvious step in such uncertainty but “institutional arrangements” were less likely to matter since “one or two or three MLA” parties could hardly be deterred by the anti-defection law. For them, “political interests based on their constituencies” or allurements could drive their decision on who to ally with.

It is generally believed that incumbents have a “natural advantage” in netting smaller parties and independents because of the “power” at their command. Party wise, Congress would hope that in case of a hung assembly in any of the heartland states that it is fighting with BJP, especially Chhattisgarh, a BSP victory would be better since Mayawati is less likely to align with BJP. Similarly, TRS in Telangana would be hoping for a better result for AIMIM than BJP since allying with BJP would give credence to charges of hobnobbing with it ahead of Lok Sabha polls.

For Congress in Telangana, AIMIM would be a better bet as ally on ‘secularism’ plank despite their bitter wrangling during poll campaign.