After months of hectic campaigning and heavy polling in the recent five state elections, the poll battle is about to reach its final destination. The final results will be declared on December 11, but country is anxiously waiting for the outcome of
exit polls after the end of polling in the last two states today.
Before the actual count, the exit polls are likely to give some more talking points to the parties and political commentators. But it's not that exit polls have always been accurate. There have been several instances in the past when exit polls were way off the mark. The most popular being the 2004 Lok Sabha polls when every exit polls was giving a majority to the Atal Bihari Vajyapee led NDA government but the actual result surprised everyone.
Here are five instances when actual numbers were completely opposite to the exit polls predictions.
2004 Lok Sabha elections: Riding on the triple victories in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan state elections, Atal Bihari Vajpayee government dissolved the Parliament early, hoping for re-election. The ruling BJP went for re-election with a slogan of 'India Shining', but the slogan apparently boomeranged. The exit polls then had predicted BJP-led NDA to secure over 240 to 250 seats. But when the actual results came, the numbers were completely opposite and the Congress and its allies got 216 seats against a projection ranging from 170 to 205. BJP just managed to get 187 seats against the projections of over 240 to 250 seats.
| Exit polls |
NDA |
UPA |
Others |
Aajtak ORG -MARG
|
248 |
190 |
105 |
NDTV- AC Nielsen
|
230-250 |
190-205 |
100-120 |
Star News-C-Voter
|
263-275 |
174-186 |
86-98 |
| Zee News |
249 |
176 |
117 |
| Average of Exit Polls |
255 |
183 |
105 |
| Actual Final Result |
187 |
219 |
137 |
2014 Lok Sabha Elections: Though most exit polls had predicted a victory for BJP-led NDA, but none had predicted a majority to the BJP. Majority to exit polls were predicted BJP's win but just short of the majority mark of 272. However, when the actual result came the NDA scored a major victory with tally well above 300 and BJP alone crossing the majority mark. Congress conceded a heavy defeat and was reduced to just 44 seats.
| Exit Polls |
NDA |
UPA |
Others |
| India Today-Cicero's |
261-183 |
110-120 |
150-162 |
| CNN-IBN, CSDS |
270-282 |
92-102 |
159-181 |
| India TV-C Voter |
289 |
100 |
153 |
| Actual Results |
336 |
60 |
147 |
UP Assembly Elections 2017: Just months after demonetisation, ruling Smajwadi party and Congress had stitched an alliance to beat the Modi juggernaut in the most-populous state. All exit poll results had predicted a hung assembly in Uttar Pradesh, with BJP emerging as the largest party. However, all the exit polls proved wrong and the BJP surprised everyone by winning over 300 seats, which was way above what exit polls had predicted. The saffron party got 265 seats more in 2017 compared to 47 in 2012.
| Exit Polls |
BJP |
SP-Congress
|
BSP |
| India Today-Axis survey |
251 to 279 |
28-42 |
28-42 |
| CVOTER |
161 |
141 |
87 |
| ABP-CSDS |
170 |
163 |
67 |
| NEWSX-MRC |
185 |
120 |
90 |
| Today's Chanakya |
285 |
88 |
27 |
| Actual Result |
325 |
19 |
47 |
Bihar assembly election 2015: Exit polls predicted a photo-finish for the the bitterly-contested Bihar assembly elections in 2015. Nitish Kumar was fighting for the re-election in the state on the development poll-plank.
This election saw highest voter turnout in Bihar assembly polls since 2000, with a 56.8% voter turnout. Most exit polls predicted a mixed picture with no clear majority to any alliance. However, in actual result the RJD-JDU-Congress scrored a thumping victory with Lalu Prasad's RJD emerging as the single largest party.
Exit Polls
|
BJP+ |
JDU+ |
Others |
| India Today-Cicero |
120 |
117 |
6 |
| Today's Chanakya: |
155 |
83 |
- |
| ABP News Nielsen |
130 |
108 |
- |
| Times Now-CVoter |
111 |
122 |
- |
| Final Result |
58 |
178 |
- |
Delhi Assembly Elections 2015: With Aam Aadmi Party's (AAP) thumping 67 seats victory in the 70-member Delhi assembly, the exit polls were yet again off the mark as none of them predicted such a "tsunami" verdict. All exit polls, which were conducted during the voting day on February 7, had given AAP a clear majority, but only one had tipped their tally to cross 50 seats.
Exit Polls
|
BJP |
AAP |
Congress |
| Today's Chanakya |
22 |
48 |
0 |
| India Today-Cicero |
19-27
|
38-46 |
3-5 |
| ABP News-AC Nielsen |
26 |
43 |
1 |
| India TV-CVoter |
23-27 |
35-43 |
1-3 |
| Final Result |
3 |
67 |
0 |