Trade Drags Euro-Area Economy as Rebound Remains in Question

(Bloomberg) -- Falling exports and a slowdown in spending and investment caused euro-area growth to lose more of its luster in the third quarter, with recent numbers casting doubts over the economy’s potential to rebound.

Net trade was the biggest drag on the economy in the period, when growth was the weakest in almost five years. Since then, reports from the region’s largest economies have pointed to continued struggles of German car manufacturers, a pickup in French industry and subdued consumer spending in Italy.

The data are some of the last the European Central Bank will receive before the Governing Council convenes for a crucial session next week.

Policy makers are planning to announce a halt of quantitative easing after three years and 2.6 trillion euros ($3 trillion) of bond purchases, arguing that the region’s slowdown is temporary and a pickup in wages suggests the underlying growth momentum remains intact.

Indicator
Current period
Prior period
Euro-area employment (3Q, q/q)0.2%0.4%
German labor costs (3Q, q/q)1.0%0.2%
German industrial production (Oct., m/m)-0.5%0.2%
French industrial production (Oct., m/m)1.2%-1.8%
Italian retail sales (Oct., m/m)0.1%-0.8%

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